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Will Republicans win a Majority of Toss up house seats in 2026? [Sabato's Crystal Ball]
10
Ṁ1kṀ1.4k
Nov 3
31%
chance
9

Resolves yes if Republicans win a majority of the seats listed in the "Toss up" columns on election day. If tie settles 50:50.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-house/

Just a moment...

  • Update 2026-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there are zero "Toss up" seats on election day, the market will resolve using the last available data with toss-up seats.

  • Update 2026-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the 17 toss-up seats identified by the creator.

US Politics
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2026 US Congressional Elections
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2026 Midterms
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@HillaryClinton is this what will be used to decide which races are toss up

@Jack1 most likely. Depends if they update it again leaving toss ups still

@Jack1 go with those 17 toss ups that's final

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Jack1 so 50:50 is fair value?

bought Ṁ100 YES

That seems kind of boring. If there are truly zero "toss ups" on election day, I will use the last available data from where there are toss ups.

bought Ṁ150 NO

Cook Political: /HillaryClinton/will-republicans-win-a-majority-of

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