Somewhat surprising that this has not degraded at all given that it seems like if essentially nothing of substance happens further it will resolve NO, and nothing has really happened for the past two months.

@Balasar Based on my brief research, I think that if the market were to end today, it would resolve NO. However, there's still another nine and a half months to go!

@Gabrielle allegedly it is now less dangerous to hold protests than in the past?

@AhronMaline Venezuela continues to have immense pressure on it diplomatically from the us. Given the us left the current administration intact and are just making demands there’s a minimal chance anything good happens here, it’s just going to be a tighter ship with less resources for the citizens

@Magnify what do you mean by "anything good"? If Rodriguez is less effective than Maduro at suppressing dissent, is that not called marginally "better off"?

@AhronMaline not really, the demands (especially in light of recent events) I predict to centre around the us taking Venezuela’s oil reserves.

Dissent will happen less (for now) because it was focused on the hated figure of Maduro. Delcy has no benefit to the actual governance of the country besides the fact that Venezuelans don’t hate her as much yet.

You’re also looking at this too granular. This is a general market on the whole state of Venezuela. A global economy collapse for example will resolve this NO regardless of what happens in Venezuela, even if Delcy turns heart (which she will not).

@AhronMaline how’s the economy doing?

Gradual economic decline, forced abandonment of Cuba, military humiliation, and persistence of the authoritarian regime itself seem likely to ovewhelm relief from Maduro being deposed and modest concessions to Trump as far as the Venezuelans in Venezuela are concerned. Would love seeing some good translations of what they're saying so far though!

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/30/americas/venezuela-amnesty-law-political-prisoners-latam-intl

Venezuela’s acting president has announced a proposed amnesty law that could lead to the release of hundreds of political prisoners, as well as the closure of a notorious detention center, in her latest concessions since the US capture of President Nicolas Maduro.

the currency situation is certainly not getting any better

Ben Rowswell thinks NO (based on Delcy Rodriguez remaining in power)

https://ras-nsa.ca/expert/ben-rowswell/

@Magnify do you have a link to his analysis?

@MachiNi I spoke to him and heard him speak on this at an in person event, I was invited by him personally. There may be a recording online though, this was the event

https://iid.kislenko.com/sovereignty-or-subjugation-the-stakes-of-the-venezuela-crisis/

@Magnify nice. Thanks.

Having your leadership on the verge of musical chairs or being invaded usually makes things worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/world/americas/venezuela-release-political-prisoners.html

They freed the political prisoners I think this is a good sign https://x.com/maps_black/status/2009312548953190718?s=20

@Gugra https://x.com/agusantonetti/status/2009308528784060433?s=20

These odds are nuts.
Looking to the past 50 years, a very generous prior would be ~25%

Better off (2)

• Grenada 1983 (Free elections held 1984)

• Panama 1989 (Democratic elections; widely considered successful)

Borderline (3)

• Nicaragua 1990 (war ended, but economy ruined)

• Serbia 2000 (democratic opening, sanctions lifted)

• Haiti 1994 (brief stability, then collapse)

Not better off (7)

• Argentina 1976

• Afghanistan mujahideen 1980s

• Haiti 1986

• Afghanistan 2001

• Iraq 2003

• Haiti 2004

• Libya 2011

@jgyou Most of these are not comparable at all to what’s happened so far in Venezuela…

Fair, pick your own reference class or treat this as a loose prior to update with the inside view.

The general point is that the US replacing your head of state is, historically, not a good thing.

@jgyou

Or maybe the US replaces countries which are in a bad shape in the first place.

Also Iraq is better off now than back then by every measure, be it GDP per Capita, income, life expectancy, school attendance, etc. It had dark years of chaos without Sadam, but it had dark years of quasi-genocide under sadam too. Afghanistan, then? It lived its golden years under american occupation. Unparalleled prosperity and relative peace, better than anything they ever had before, including the "golden" years of 1950 (it was a shithole poorer than americas Afghanistan). Afghanistan is proof that when the US leaves broken countries to the indigenous peoples, it gets worse.

You also forgot about other extremely sucessful cases of american intervention. Germany, Japan, Italy, South Korea, Taiwan... (Bosnia somewhat), Chile, Brazil (Brazil was mostly internal, just american support in case of civil war).

So yeah, your prior comes from a biased selection of episodes and biased interpretation of its outcomes.

(via Hanania)

@noaht2 this cannot be for real, is he planning to take everyone hostage or what?