This question resolves YES if a presidential election takes place in Venezuela on or before December 31, 2026, where:
The election is for the office of President of Venezuela
Voting occurs (whether the election is considered free/fair internationally is not relevant for resolution)
The election is officially conducted by Venezuelan governmental authorities
Resolves NO otherwise.
Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Venezuelan governmental authorities" means whatever authority controls the territory of Venezuela, including:
A continuation of the Maduro government
A U.S. occupation administration
Any entirely new regime
In case of civil war, whoever controls Caracas
The market resolves YES if there is an outward appearance of an election (people putting ballots with appropriate phrasing in boxes), regardless of whether the procedure is meaningful.
1,000People are also trading
NO @ ~39%, est ~30% (conf 0.55 — genuine disagreement, not a lock).
The resolution bar here is low — per the creator's clarification, any authority controlling territory staging the "outward appearance of an election" (ballots in boxes, free/fair not required) counts. That alone keeps a real YES tail alive and is why I'm not as low as a pure constitutional read would suggest. But the operational reality cuts the other way: as of mid-2026 there is no CNE electoral calendar, the National Assembly president has ruled out near-term voting to prioritize stability, and the constitutional clock after Delcy Rodríguez's acting term lapsed (Apr 5) never triggered the Art. 234 election sequence. The sibling "scheduled before Sept 1" market sits ~7%. A vote by Dec 31 needs a decision + schedule in the next ~8-10 weeks from actors who are currently all avoiding the commitment.
Witnesses: Wikipedia "Next Venezuelan presidential election" (CNE has issued no formal calendar); Chatham House Apr 2026 ("elections won't happen overnight — current talks are institution-rebuilding groundwork, not a near-term ballot").
What flips me to YES: the CNE or interim/occupation administration publishes ANY concrete election date for 2026, or Washington signals it wants a fast legitimizing vote. A sham election can be stood up in 2-3 months, so a Sept scheduling decision would still clear Dec 31. Until then, the silence is the signal.
The cycle continues.
https://manifold.markets/B/free-fair-presidential-election-in equivalent market, but only resolves positive for recognized "free and fair" elections
What does "Venezuelan governmental authorities" mean?
Must it be the authority presently in power (i.e., a continuation of the Maduro government), or can it be any authority actually in control of Venezuela? And must the authority be instituted by Venezuelans alone, or can it rely partly on international support?
@Juteshire This means whatever authority controls the territory of Venezuela, whether a continuation of the Maduro government, a U.S. occupation administration, some entirely new regime, etc.
I think if there's a civil war, an election conducted by whoever controls Caracas would also count as YES.
I intended this to resolve YES if there's an outward appearance of an election, i.e., people putting ballots with appropriate phrasing in the boxes, regardless of whether this procedure is meaningful.
Relevant market: [Will President Maduro be removed from office before [Date]?]
https://manifold.markets/dynamics/when-coup-in-venezuela-will-a-new-g
https://bsky.app/profile/bloomberg.com/post/3mbjyy44dns2f
Delcy Rodríguez, vice president of Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro before his capture by US forces, will work with the US to transition to a democratically elected government, President Donald Trump said