Wikipedia lists Maduro as the President de jure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela

We're not necessarily following Wikipedia in this market, but I think that's a good reflection of the current situation.

@EvanDaniel she's been formally sworn in by the Assembly. does this hang on her being "interim" or "acting" while Maduro may still be de jure President, at least for a few more months as allowed by the constitution? https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/delcy-rodriguez-sworn-in-as-venezuela-s-interim-president-255418949792

@deagol Maduro was not killed

@Areal there are constitutional limits to a temporary absence. Of course they'll do as they please, but can't take the whole year to figure it out.

But it seems to me from other comments, the creator isn't going by formalities of the Venezuelan regime narrative, but more of a practical "is he in power" consensus. Thus why I asked.

@EvanDaniel Wikipedia no longer lists Maduro on the Venezuela page; on his own page it describes him as "while still nominally the president". I think we should wait a bit longer, but if anyone has clearer criteria to suggest than Wikipedia consensus across articles or a formal thing by the Venezuelan government let me know.

@EvanDaniel what I was asking, specifically, is if the current consensus stands by year-end (Maduro nominally but VP is "in charge"), is that a YES or NO? Alternatively, what would need to happen to force an early NO, other than obvious stuff that officially strips Maduro from "de jure" like an election, coup, death, etc.

Note the only criteria in the description is "For the entire year" which can be taken as ruling out any temporary absence, meaning the current consensus already calls for an early NO. Finally, I think the Wikipedia consensus, apart from the Venezuela and Maduro pages, could also be taken from the relatively less contested https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Venezuela

@deagol I remain unsure what the best way to handle this is, but right now I'm thinking it is at least somewhat along the lines of "if the people with de facto power in Venezuela still say he is the President, then he is". Combined with "how do major news sources, including Wikipedia, report the situation". I am extremely open to other suggestions, especially ones that reasonably look at the fact that this question is "remain President" and not "remain in power". I freely admit this situation is nothing like anything I considered when writing the question, and did not think those would reasonably have different interpretations. I don't think there's a clear "spirit of the question" or "literal interpretation" answer here, but I tend towards the latter to the extent it exists. The question as written says "President" but fails to address "de facto" vs "de jure", and I don't think I even slightly considered the distinction when writing it.

Apologies for the slow reply; it was a good question, and I did not wish to rush an answer.

@EvanDaniel if the current situation held, would there be a good chance this resolves yes?

@Jack1 I'm interpreting "current situation" to include the extent of discussion that's happened and research I've done; I'm trying very hard to say that I have not done enough research to resolve this question, and that I think stating strong opinions about outcomes before doing that research is bad epistemics and bad for producing a thoughtful and well-researched answer. I'm probably going to do things like asking the mod team for other inputs, as well. In other words: the current situation will not hold, because someone will do better research and lay out a better case for a specific answer. It will be me if no one beats me to it. This is partly because I haven't gotten around to it and partly because people seemed to want me not to rush so I figured I'd give other folks a chance to post their sources and reasoning and so on.

Relevant market: [Will President Maduro be removed from office before [Date]?]

https://manifold.markets/dynamics/when-coup-in-venezuela-will-a-new-g

Yes Limit order up @ 1%

You can’t resolve this until someone other than Maduro is officially President of Venezuela and acknowledged by Venezuelan people and institutions.

Ah, I see it has been un-resolved. Thanks for that. Let’s see what happens.

@jrmygrdn I don't think I agree! It seems entirely possible to have no president or an acting or interim president, or a leader with some other title, or for Maduro to be dead.

@EvanDaniel The VP has been appointed interim President by the judiciary

@ChurlishGambit why she claims there 8s only one president and he is Maduro?

Wikipedia also decided to keep Maduro not as a former

@EvanDaniel You’re right, there are some possibilities there!

@DerkachMichael To say otherwise, would be to legitimize what our government has done. But legally, she's now the interim President.

Much as I enjoyed betting no - isn't this resolution very early? I mean, he's not NOT the president just because he's been arrested by a foreign power.

@Noit fair enough.

@Noit when does he become not the president?

@Jack1 I dunno, but given wikipedia says the incumbent is "disputed" it can't be clear cut yet

@Noit Ok, I think that might mean it’s disputed who his successor is though (is it delcy etc), Wikipedia says he ended being president on 3 Jan. but No problem waiting, hopefully becomes clearer soon

@Jack1 sounds like the vice president is saying he's still president, so I think things are quite contested still. I don't see much harm in waiting a bit.

@EvanDaniel great, I offer to wait until 2027 for clarity