Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?
5
Ṁ1kṀ7122029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
57%
>= 222, Impeached
9%
< 222, Impeached
17%
>= 222, Not Impeached
18%
< 222, Not Impeached
This will resolve exactly according to these two underlying markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
You can view this market in my conditional markets viewer here. This will let you see implied probabilities like P(impeached | 222+), or place conditional bets or correlation bets.
The UI is a bit cluttered, feedback or suggested changes welcome :)
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ?
88% chance
Will the Democrats Outperform their 2018 Midterm Results? [Win more than 235 seats in 2026]
26% chance
Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
39% chance
Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?
67% chance
If the Dems win enough seats in the midterms, will Trump be impeached?
70% chance
Will Democrats win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections?
87% chance
Will the Democratic party win more than 240 US house seats in the 2026 election?
18% chance
Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
17% chance
Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
65% chance
Will Trump get impeached by the House and Senate before the end of his 2nd term?
16% chance