Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
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10kṀ52k2029
54%
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Question resolves based on him being officially impeached by the House (as he was twice during his first term); conviction by the Senate does not affect this question one way or the other.
Resolves N/A in the (now quite unlikely) event that he does not win.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ100 NO4mo
No: this would be a completely stupid and counterproductive thing to do (and of course assumes the dems retake the house in 2026).
Yes: the dems never learn from their mistakes.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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