Resolves PROB to the number of House seats won by the Republican Party that they didn't win in 2024. >= 100 flips resolves to 100%. Counting independents by who they intend to caucus with.
See also:
/EvanDaniel/how-many-house-seats-will-flip-in-2
/EvanDaniel/how-many-house-seats-will-the-democ-29Rtl8ZcQU
1,000@BodeyBaker It's listed as binary, so there is only one share type, rather than multiple choice with buckets or thresholds. But each YES share will pay out some fraction of the total, not necessarily zero or one (and vice versa for NO). So if the Republicans flip 13 seats, your YES shares will be worth M0.13 each, and NO shares M0.87. If you bought your NO shares at M0.85 (current price) you'd make a (small) profit.
@BodeyBaker This is sometimes referred to as "resolves to PROB" or similar. For most people, most of the time, I suspect you would rather bet in one of the markets in the "see also" section. They're probably more intuitive, higher return, and closer to what you want.
This market is mainly intended as I/O for my election modelling project. I think I need it to exist for complex reasons.