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MANIFOLD
How many "safe" House seats will flip in 2026?
6
Ṁ1.1kṀ2.7k
Nov 2
35%
≥8
25%
≥10
19%
≥13
15%
≥16
10%
≥20
8%
≥25

A seat "flips" if won by a different party than won it in 2024. Independents count based on which party they caucus with.

The 68 "competitive" seats are those in Will a Democrat win these US House races in 2026?

This market covers the remaining 367 seats.

Model as of question creation: mean 16, ≥10 covers 92%, ≥20 covers 22%.

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