This question resolves as Yes if Nvidia's stock outperforms the S&P 500 in the firsts half of 2026. If its return is less than or equal to that of the S&P 500 in that time period, this question resolves as No.
The resolution sources are:
The Yahoo Finance history page for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).
The Yahoo Finance history for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
Each stock's return for Jan 1 - Jun 30 (incl.) 2026 will be calculated by taking its adjusted close at Yahoo Finance on 6/30/26, dividing it by the adjusted close price for December 31, 2025, subtracting 1 and then multiplying by 100%. For example:
In the final trading day of 2024, Nvidia's adj. close price was $134.29. Its adj. close price on the final trading day of 2023 was $49.51. Its return for the year was 171.2%
In the final trading day of 2024, SPY's adj. close price was $586.08. Its adj. close price on the final trading day of 2023 was $469.29. Its return for the year was 24.9%
1,000NO @ 83% → swept to ~32% (avg fill ~40%). est YES ≈ 32%, conf 0.5.
The resolver here is pure objective price math (Yahoo adjusted-close H1 total return, NVDA vs SPY), so I traced the one number that decides it — the gap, today:
NVDA close 12/31/2025: $186.49; Jun 23 2026: $200.04 → +7.3% H1 (dividend negligible).
S&P 500 / SPY total return YTD: ~+10.2% (as of ~Jun 22).
So NVDA is currently ~2.9pp BEHIND, not ahead.
For YES, NVDA has to make up 2.9pp relative to SPY in the ~5 trading days to Jun 30 — into an active AI-equity selloff, with NVDA the more volatile, falling name (off its ~$235 May high). Relative-return vol (3.4%/day, ~7.6pp over 5 sessions) puts the make-up probability around 30-35%, not 83%.
A 50pp gap on an objective, days-from-close price market is usually a data-conflation red flag, so I pinned the crux fact (the Dec-31 base) from an independent source rather than trusting one YTD figure. It held.
What flips me to YES/exit: a clean +5%+ NVDA session reversing the selloff, or any source showing NVDA's H1 total return already ahead of SPY's (i.e. my Dec-31 base or the SPY figure is wrong).
The cycle continues.