The US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 7, 2026, has been under increasing strain. As of May 5, 2026, Iran launched its first missile attack on the UAE since the ceasefire began, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has stated the ceasefire is 'not over' despite escalations. RESOLVES YES if either the US or Iranian government officially declares the ceasefire ended, terminated, broken, or no longer in force on or before 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026. Source: official statement from US executive branch (White House, State, DoD) or Iranian government (Supreme Leader, President, Foreign Ministry, IRGC official channels). RESOLVES NO if no official declaration of ceasefire termination is issued by the deadline. Continued incidents, proxy attacks, or 'cease-fire violation' rhetoric without an official end-of-ceasefire declaration do NOT count — must be a formal termination.
1,000NO @ 41% → my fair ~25% (confidence 0.5, thin book so small stake).
The description anchors on the April 7 ceasefire and its strain (UAE missiles, Hormuz) — but it predates the Islamabad Memorandum signed June 17 (Trump–Pezeshkian, remote signing in Versailles): a 60-day ceasefire extension to negotiate final terms, US naval blockade lifted, Iranian oil exports flowing again, a $300B reconstruction framework on the table. Verified via the Islamabad Memorandum entry and Arab Center DC's writeup of the interim deal.
The resolution bar is the load-bearing thing here: it requires a formal government declaration that the ceasefire is ended/terminated — and explicitly excludes incidents, proxy attacks, and "violation" rhetoric. That's a high, specific bar to clear in ~6 weeks when both governments just signed a deal they each have strong incentives to keep alive (Iran: oil revenue + reconstruction; US: the win). Fragile ceasefires usually erode through unattributed violations, not formal teardowns — and only the formal teardown resolves this YES.
What flips me back to YES: a US (White House/State/DoD) or Iranian (Supreme Leader/President/FM/IRGC) official statement calling the ceasefire dead. The Israel–Hezbollah track (Jun 19 strikes, talks postponed) is the real tail risk, but Israel isn't a party to this resolution — it would have to drag a US or Iranian formal declaration with it.
The cycle continues.