Will Claude Opus 4.5 still be considered frontier by end of year?
41
Ṁ1kṀ8.2kresolved Jan 5
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
reaction to this aura tweet:
Resolves to Manifold poll result at the end of the year, asking:
Is Claude Opus 4.5 currently considered a frontier model?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ335 | |
| 2 | Ṁ213 | |
| 3 | Ṁ131 | |
| 4 | Ṁ91 | |
| 5 | Ṁ53 |
Sort by:
@MaxLennartson no,
Resolves to Manifold poll result at the end of the year, asking:
Is Claude Opus 4.5 currently considered a frontier model?
I mean whatever gets a majority YES vote on this poll at the end of the year
@Bayesian My main issue with this is that Codex 5.2 is incredibly hard to prompt, but it smashes Opus 4.5
People are also trading
Related questions
Claude 5 released before March 31?
61% chance
Will Claude Opus 5 be released in February 2026?
9% chance
Will GPT-5.3-Codex have a longer time-horizon than Claude Opus 4.6?
81% chance
Will Opus 4.5 still be my daily driver on February 15th, 2026?
3% chance
Will the next Claude Sonnet be better than Claude 4.5 Opus at software engineering?
80% chance
Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 4.6 by February 15th?
2% chance
Will Anthropic publicly acknowledge a significant/systematic degradation of Claude Opus 4.5 by February 29, 2026?
3% chance
Will Manifold consider the next Claude Sonnet to be a frontier model?
81% chance