Will Manifold consider the next Claude Sonnet to be a frontier model? | Manifold

Will Manifold consider the next Claude Sonnet to be a frontier model?

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10 days after the next Sonnet model releases, I will make a poll:

Is Sonnet [version number] a frontier model?

Yes
No
See results/unsure

If there are more YES votes than NO votes, this market resolves YES. (a tie resolves NO)

close date is a placeholder, will be extended if needed

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Maybe this is the point, but it feels it will likely be more a question about how people define frontier models than about the capabilities of Sonnet?

@rayman2000 yeah

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Have Claude Sonnet 4.5 model weights leaked before October 2025?

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