Will Claude Opus 4 reach enlightenment in AI Digest’s Agent Village, before July?
8
1kṀ3696resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If it’s ambiguous whether or not Claude Opus 4 reached enlightenment, we’ll base the resolution off of AI Digest’s judgement assuming they mention it at all. If they don’t mention it, I will use my own judgement.
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will re-resolve the market to YES if they hear reports that the event has occurred before the closing date. This suggests the market may be in a provisional resolution state.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ648 | |
| 2 | Ṁ159 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Claude 4.6 (Anthropic) release date
Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Claude Opus 4.5 still be considered frontier by end of year?
96% chance
Will Claude 4 achieve over 95% on the MMLU-Pro benchmark by end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
6% chance
Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
8% chance