@Bayesian could you resolve 2/5? I'm running low on funds

So what’s the working theory for why they axxed Sonnet 5 at the last minute?

@JaundicedBaboon Maybe this?

> They've been making the Opus models smaller since Opus 3. I think this is Sonnet but they branded it Opus so they could charge more. That's why it has 1 million context like Sonnet.

https://x.com/_Mira___Mira_/status/2019532329899946202

Though I wonder if "this is Sonnet" is actually meaningful. Like they might just have a bunch of checkpoints internally, and it's somewhat arbitrary how it's branded.

I mean the models would be different sizes, but it might not mean anything to say "this is Sonnet" other than that "this is smaller than what was previously released as Opus".

@rogs mira is wrong lol

@bens https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/was-opus-46-meant-to-be-called-sonn?r=YmVucw

@bens exhibit B:

https://manifold.markets/StephanHeijl/was-sonnet-5-not-released-because-i?r=YmVucw

@bens That market doesn't mean anything. It can only resolve NO or NA because Anthropic won't publicly comment on their branding decisions. So it's like "will humanity go extinct from AI?" markets where the correct price is 0%, even if the true measure of such worlds is higher.

It's called "Anthropics": Conditioning on what we observe distorts probabilities.

What is your theory of the leak + no release @Bayesian? Legit but delays?

@jgyou yeah

@Bayesian we'll see. Your bot has a pretty big position on end of Feb now

Are we having an option for every day?

@NayutaIto currently not, lmk of any dates you want me to add

Vercel deleted their tweet saying it would come out today

@satchlj cooked

@satchlj

@Bayesian How do you know this is a NO? It’s 8:36 AM on the west coast. Anthropic employees are only just starting their work day.

EDIT OMG I SHOULD LEARN TO READ SORRY 😭😭😭😭

…those bastards lied to us

@Bayesian I would love a Sonnet 5 prop bets market. I could make it if you want. Any ideas for some of the prop bets

@JeromeHPowell i'm really busy rn but i'd love that and sending you 1500M to fund it. will let you know if i have ideas or add some, you can make it with few and we add as we go if you don't wanna wait

@Bayesian just made https://manifold.markets/JeromeHPowell/sonnet-5-prop-bets

@WalterMartin ur buying NO on today release, wanna bet more at 50%? In my mind it’s kinda this week or bust

I personally think that they will release Claude Sonnet 4.6 first.

@MaxLennartson Though I could be wrong.

@MaxLennartson i thought this too but you are missing days of leaks and speculation and rumors of context, from twitter