An option will resolve YES if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria before the option's associated deadline. Otherwise, the option in question will resolve to “No.”
1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.
2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.
3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles. It may only be accessible in a specific country or region.
Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp
/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-a-browser
/Bayesian/when-will-tesla-launch-unsupervised (this market)
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-sora-2
/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc
Update 2025-08-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator intends to resolve this market to N/A due to ambiguity and will not further disambiguate the criteria.
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I think the conditions are most likely to be met when Tesla human observers are no longer physically present in the current robotaxi service in Austin. But they will likely not say when they start to ease off on the remote monitoring. For that reason @Bayesian , I think you should specify the remote supervision criterion in terms of what is observable by the user, not what is announced or expected.
@LoganTurner For context, I predict that the exact mix of remote humans and AIs in the loop will be a secret sauce that is critical to profitability, so Tesla will prefer not to be transparent about this.
@Bayesian i also think we need more clarity on what “broadly accessible” means in point 3