GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Ṁ2.5kṀ28k

Aug 7

Before February 2026

1.3%

Before March 2026

1.9%

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

25%

Before July 2026

35%

Before August 2026

40%

Before September 2026

50%

Before October 2026

59%

Before November 2026

68%

Before December 2026

75%

Before 2027

75%

Before February 2027

78%

Before March 2027

77%

Before April 2027

79%

Before May 2027

82%

Before June 2027

82%

Before July 2027

85%

Before August 2027

85%

Before September 2027

Minor changes to the name, such as using "GPT-6-mini" instead of "GPT 6", are acceptable when determining the release.

To count as released, the model must be accessible to some members of the public outside OpenAI (a closed beta doesn't count). If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.

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Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

86% chance

Will OpenAI release a new GPT-5 model before March 31, 2026?

80% chance

Will OpenAI release a product named ChatGPT6?

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boughtṀ20 YES

@256 what's up

bought Ṁ8 YES

@Bayesian https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/19/sam-altman-on-gpt-6-people-want-memory.html

I think their router model means gpt-5 is much more modular now. If there's a new paradigm that emerges suddenly over the next 18 months they can just switch in a new module for that to keep gpt-5 going

bought Ṁ3 YES

my instinct is it won't take >2 years this time, but I thought this after GPT-4 too.

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Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?

-11% 1d86% chance

Will OpenAI release a new GPT-5 model before March 31, 2026?

80% chance

Will OpenAI release a product named ChatGPT6?

86% chance

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