Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
12
Ṁ100Ṁ3092040
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
6%
Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048
90%
Autonomous AI math researcher
4%
Neither arrives by January 1, 2040
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market:
https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Although the linked market by Tamay Besiroglu resolved early due to a concession, this market will remain open until the criteria for one of the events fully holds.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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