Background
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories. Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
Resolution criteria
Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately. Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
Classical assistance – Classical pre or post-processing (e.g., compiling the quantum circuit, checking the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization of the number must be performed by the quantum hardware.
Not applicable fail-safe – If no qualifying quantum computer exists before Jan 1, 2100 the market resolves "Not Applicable".
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The RSA-2048 challenge number can be found on Wikipedia:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers
25195908475657893494027183240048398571429282126204032027777137836043662020707595556264018525880784406918290641249515082189298559149176184502808489120072844992687392807287776735971418347270261896375014971824691165077613379859090009733045974880842840179742910064245869181795118746121515172654632282216869987549182422433637259085141865462043576798423387184774447920739934236584823982428119816381501067481045166037730605620161967625613384414360833904414953443221901146575444541784240209246165157233507787077498171257724679629263866373289912154831438167899885040445364023527381951378636564391212010397122822120720357
1,000