MANIFOLD
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on an unsolved math problem, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
11
Ṁ1kṀ795
2027
46%
chance

Resolves YES if a breakthrough-level problem from the Epoch AI FrontierMath Open Problems benchmark is solved.

The benchmark classifies problems into four difficulty levels, with Breakthrough being the highest.

Note that to avoid contamination solved problems will be removed from the benchmark. So a solution only counts for this market if an AI solves the problem before any human solution is found.

  • Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Scope of problems: Includes any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark, not just those currently listed.

AI vs human collaboration: The creator will defer to Epoch AI's determination of whether AI gets credit for a solution, but will use their own judgment if Epoch AI is unclear.

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Does this include any future breakthrough-level problems added to the benchmark? Also, how will AI+human collaborated solutions be evaluated? Epoch AI talks about the latter but it's not clear if they'll produce decisive answers on if a given solution counts as AI or not.

@PlasmaPower Yes, it includes future problems as well. I'll try to defer to Epoch on when the AI gets credit for a solution, but if they're unclear I'll use my own judgment.

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