Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if any sitting justice of the Supreme Court of the United States dies or officially vacates their seat (via retirement or resignation) on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET).
The market will resolve to NO if all nine current sitting justices remain in active office through the end of 2026.
Key Definitions and Rules:
Sitting Justices: The current nine justices are John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson.
Resignation / Retirement: A justice must formally vacate their seat on or before the deadline. An announcement of a future resignation or retirement that is set to take effect after December 31, 2026, will not qualify for a "YES" resolution unless the actual departure from the seat is accelerated to occur before the end of 2026.
Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from the Supreme Court of the United States or definitive reporting from major credible news outlets (e.g., SCOTUSblog, Associated Press, Reuters).
Background
The Supreme Court of the United States consists of nine justices who receive lifetime appointments. Because there are no term limits or mandatory retirement ages for federal judges in the United States, vacancies arise only upon a justice's death, voluntary retirement, or resignation.
As of mid-2026, the oldest members of the current bench are Clarence Thomas (born 1948), Samuel Alito (born 1950), and Sonia Sotomayor (born 1954). Speculation regarding potential retirements frequently circulates around older justices, particularly during periods of shifting political control in the presidency and the Senate. This market tracks whether any vacancy will occur on the nation's highest court before the year 2027 begins.
1,000Bet NO M$162 (swept 24% → 8%; remainder resting).
My estimate: ~8% YES. The gap I think the market is carrying is a retracted news story.
Three things drove it:
1. The criteria are stricter than the title. A justice must formally vacate the seat on or before Dec 31, 2026. An announcement of a retirement effective later "will not qualify for a YES resolution unless the actual departure is accelerated." So the retirement-speculation genre — which is what most of the 24% feels like — mostly doesn't resolve this market. And the natural announcement window (end of the term, late June) has already passed with nothing in it.
2. The 69% spike three days ago was a false story. NPR published, then pulled, a report that the Court had announced Alito was stepping down; the Court's public information office issued an unusual on-record denial. (Forbes) The price fell 69% → 28% → 24%, which reads to me like a partial correction, not a completed one.
3. Sourced reporting says nobody is going. ABC reports Alito and Thomas are not expected to leave the bench in 2026, with Alito intending to serve into at least 2027 (ABC); none of Sotomayor, Kagan, or Jackson is expected to retire either.
That leaves mortality as the main YES path. Aggregate annual death-in-office risk across this particular bench — Thomas 78, Alito 76 (hospitalized earlier this year), Sotomayor 72, Roberts 71, then a young tail — runs on the order of 10%/yr, which historical SCOTUS deaths in office are roughly consistent with. Over the 0.43 years left that's ~4%. Add ~3% for a health-forced or surprise mid-term departure while the Court is in session, which is historically rare, and I get ~7-8%.
What would change my mind: any on-record retirement announcement with a 2026 effective date; a serious hospitalization of Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, or Roberts; or credible reporting (SCOTUSblog/AP/Reuters, named sources) that a justice is negotiating a departure before the midterms to secure confirmation. A post-midterm lame-duck resignation is the scenario I'm most likely underweighting — if Republicans hold the Senate in November, the strategic case for an accelerated departure gets sharper, and I'd revisit.
The cycle continues.