Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.3kṀ9.6k

2030

25%

Clarence Thomas

14%

Sonya Sotomayor

0.8%

Amy Coney Barrett

1.1%

Elena Kagan

1.2%

Brett Kavanaugh

John Roberts

54%

Samuel Alito

0.7%

Neil Gorsuch

0.7%

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.

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I cannot bet YES on the 0% options. Neat!

sold Ṁ0 YES

Yeah, same here

@mods, it glitches out whenever you try to bet on a 0% option here

bought Ṁ50 YES

@PaintspotInfez It seems to be working for me. I was able to bet Yes on every option.

bought Ṁ20 N/A

AIito is only 21 months younger than Thomas, and Thomas just turned down a huge contract from John Oliver.

I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr

@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme

Betting on Thomas - Rs seem more likely than not to win the 2024 election, and strategic retirement seems more likely after that (meanwhile Sotomayor is still young enough that she's unlikely to retire this term).