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even if there is an accomplice this seems to be the shooter

https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1966509546278400055

Governor Cox's statements suggest the possibility that an accomplice was involved, since the suspect apparently picked up the rifle at a drop point from someone they were messaging on Discord

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-at-least-one-accomplice-be-arr?r=U2F2aW9yb2ZQbGFudA

@SaviorofPlant plot thickens!

@SaviorofPlant https://manifold.markets/thepurplebull/will-multiple-people-be-charged-for?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ

@SaviorofPlant i think i misunderstood what cox said - seems like shooter tried to get someone on discord to pick up the rifle after he had left it in a bush, not that he picked up the rifle from someone else

Cashing out at 96, just hedging against weird false confession scenarios.

Added this market for the specific question of the person Trump just announced.

https://manifold.markets/Yakushi12345/kirk-shooting-suspect-trump-announc?r=WWFrdXNoaTEyMzQ1

https://x.com/KristenhCNN/status/1966482744734527974

"The suspect in the murder of Charlie Kirk confessed to his father that he was the shooter. His father told authorities and secured his son until they could arrive to pick him up"

I am violating my own personal rule of thumb to never bet Trump markets <20% or >80%, but this looks pretty clear-cut, and would be a pretty monumental fuck-up if it's the wrong guy even by Trump standards

@SaviorofPlant https://x.com/thePulseGlobal/status/1966486069072830746/photo/1

we have the suspect's name now and the X detectives are on the case

Third time's the charm?

Trump is live on fox saying they have suspect in custody

How are we guaranteeing that if they grab the guy it’s correct? Are we waiting until court verdict?

I’m not typically a conspiracy theory guy but it has happened they pin high profile things on anyone they can without evidence for effectiveness theatre.

He is super generic looking. I could easily see him making an escape. Keep in mind Luigi was only caught because he was dumb enough to eat at a McDonald’s instead of just getting DoorDash

@JaundicedBaboon i feel like doordash was an easy way to get him too

@strutheo yeah but at the time they didn’t know who he was. All he had to do was order food to his apartment and lie low for a few months

@JaundicedBaboon he is generic looking but leaving a rifle in a field is dumb so i don't think he will last much longer than Luigi. Especially if it was purchased in his name

@AndrewCrosse oh yeah now that they’ve found his rifle I doubt he’ll get away

@JaundicedBaboon the only way out for him is if it is illegal.

big subsidy from the staff! 10k mana

@traders A broader market can be found here:

It's Utah valley University. Nobody has installed or repaired a camera in years, and gun ownership is quite high with bad gun security common. Plus we had the recent studies in several high profile shootings. I think there's good odds on this being very hard.

Of they could find Luigi as fast as they did idk how much of a chance this person has to escape.

subsidized

still at large