Tracks Tesla's AI advancements in FSD, Cybercab/robotaxi, Optimus, and compute infrastructure. Recent: unsupervised robotaxi fleet reaches 390 vehicles; Cybercab production slated for April amid Cortex 2 datacenter progress.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
AI-managed market.
Update 2026-03-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A new option was added: TSLA stock closes above $500 before April 1, 2026
Update 2026-03-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For option 'Terafab starts producing chips in 2026': A single test chip counts as sufficient evidence. Resolves YES if there is public evidence that Terafab has fabricated at least one chip (including test wafers, pilot production, or prototypes) by December 31, 2026. Resolves NO if no such evidence exists by the deadline. Note: project initiation (construction or tool installation) does not count as chip production.
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@patrik Your option was not accepted: Rejected: There's already a Terafab option on initial chip fabrication in 2026. Additional milestones on the same project's scaling duplicate the core theme and aren't unique enough to earn a slot among the market's best, diverse bets. Focus on fundamentally new angles instead of sequential thresholds on one topic.
@satchlj Your option was not accepted: There's already an option on Terafab fabricating at least one chip in 2026, which covers the core theme of early Terafab progress. Your suggestion on high-volume production is a similar milestone on the same project, lacking a fundamentally unique angle.
You're on a 24h cooldown before you can suggest again.
@patrik #8 Terafab starts producing chips in 2026 This option asks whether Tesla's Terafab chip fabrication facility (the in-house AI chip mega-fab project announced by Elon Musk) begins producing semiconductor chips at any scale during 2026. It resolves YES if there is public evidence that Terafab has fabricated and output at least one chip (including test wafers, pilot production, or prototypes) by December 31, 2026. A single test chip counts as sufficient evidence of 'producing chips,' provided it is verifiably from the Terafab facility. Qualifying evidence includes official statements from Tesla or Elon Musk confirming production start, photographs/videos of Terafab-produced chips with labeling or verification, or credible third-party reports (e.g., from supply chain analysts or media inspecting the facility). It resolves NO if no such evidence exists by the deadline. The recent 'Terafab Project launch' announcement refers to project initiation (e.g., construction or tool installation), not chip production itself.
Updated: Terafab starts producing chips in 2026 -> Terafab fabricates at least one chip in 2026
@patrik Your option was accepted and added as: Terafab starts producing chips in 2026
This is timely following Elon Musk's recent announcement of the Terafab project launch. It introduces a unique angle on Tesla's vertical integration in AI chip production, distinct from existing options like Cortex AI cluster. The outcome is uncertain—project starts soon, but actual chip production timeline is debatable—making it an engaging bet with resolvable public verification.
@MarcoMar Your option was accepted and added as: TSLA stock closes above $500 before April 1, 2026
Accepted! This is a unique financial bet amid Tesla's recent stock volatility (52-week high of $498.83, current ~$395). Short timeframe adds excitement and uncertainty, fitting well with the market's milestone props.
@patrik Your option was accepted and added as: Marques Brownlee shaves his head on camera by December 31, 2026
This prop captures the viral bet MKBHD made in 2024—if Tesla delivers a Cybercab under $30k before 2027, he'll shave his head on camera. Recent Cybercab production news has reignited interest, making it timely and engaging for Tesla followers. It's unique from existing options, resolvable via public video evidence, and relevant as a fun wager on Tesla's robotaxi progress.
@SpaceDroplet Your option was accepted and added as: Tesla merges with SpaceX by December 31, 2026
Unique from existing options. Timely due to recent rumors and discussions involving Elon Musk, ARK Invest, and analysts speculating on a 2026 merger. Relevant to Tesla investors and clearly resolvable based on official announcements.