Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
40
Ṁ1kṀ8k
2034
0.7%
2024
1%
2025
6%
2026
34%
>2030
58%
Other

Resolution Clarifications:

  • Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year

  • "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")

Mass production indicators:

first deliveries

explicit communication of mass production start

announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Elon musk
Tesla
Humanoid robotics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:
opened a Ṁ100 YES at 15% order

Since there's a ">2030" answer, this market can close at the end of 2030.

opened a Ṁ47 YES at 10% order

@Yves My interpretation of this matches yours, right?

2026 is a forgone conclusion

@Yves There is a 2k/666 limit order on 2024 NO 25%. It's just waiting for you...

Im Watching You How I Met Your Mother GIF by Laff

Mass production indicators:

  • first deliveries

  • explicit communication of mass production start

  • announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Other Suggestions??

@Yves please write in the description the criteria for mass production

@Yves How big does x have to be?
1k ? Seems too low
10k ?
100k ?

Please put up some criteria for mass production.

@Lion Will this question resolve if the robot is renamed?

@Lion Product Rename does not change the outcome

People are also trading