Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
Update 2026-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Option #21 (updated from US military deaths to US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026):
Casualties definition: Includes service members unavailable for duty due to death (KIA/DOW), wounding (WIA), illness/injury, missing (MIA), or capture. This explicitly includes wounded/injured personnel, not just deaths.
Resolution: Based on cumulative official DoD figures or confirmation from major news outlets (Reuters/AP/CNN). Non-hostile casualties tied to the theater/operation count, but unrelated peacetime accidents do not.
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@patrik Resolved option 21 as YES based on clear reports of US military casualties (killed + wounded) surpassing 600 per CNN and Pentagon data. No other options have definitive evidence of having occurred or becoming impossible yet; most are future-dated or unconfirmed (e.g., Mojtaba Khamenei is reported as alive/serving as leader amid rumors, no nuclear detonations, no draft, war ongoing but deadline far off, etc.). User request was good faith, tied to the casualties figure.
Resolved: - #21 US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026 -> YES: CNN and multiple outlets (BBC, Wikipedia, AP) report US military casualties in the 2026 Iran war at 18+ killed and 624+ wounded as of late July 2026, totaling over 640, clearly exceeding 500.
@patrik #21 US military deaths (KIA) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026 This option refers to total US military casualties in the Iran-related conflict/war exceeding 500 by the end of 2026. In standard US military terminology (as used by the DoD Defense Casualty Analysis System and official reporting), 'casualties' means service members who become unavailable for duty due to death (KIA/DOW), wounding (WIA), illness/injury, missing (MIA), capture, or similar causes. It explicitly includes wounded/injured personnel, not just deaths. YES resolves if cumulative official US military figures (or equivalent confirmation from major outlets like Reuters/AP/CNN citing DoD data) show total casualties >500 by December 31, 2026 (UTC). NO otherwise. Non-hostile casualties tied to the operation/theater typically count; pure peacetime accidents unrelated to the conflict do not. As of late July 2026, DoD/CNN figures already show roughly 18 killed + 624 wounded (total >640), but final resolution uses end-of-period official tallies.
Updated: US military deaths (KIA) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026 -> US military casualties (killed + wounded + other) exceed 500 by December 31, 2026
@spacedroplet CNN is reporting casualties over 600 as of today
Iran war casualty count eclipses 600 as Pentagon quietly changes accounting | CNN Politics
@xenophon13 oh casualties include injuries? I thought just deaths but English isn't my first language.
@Hakari Wiktionary has: "A person in military service who becomes unavailable for duty, for any reason (notably death, injury, illness, capture, or desertion)." I've seen it frequently used in this way in military context (e.g. "heat casualty").
In other contexts (like news reporting on natural disasters) it is often used to mean only deaths, so a bit hard to tell precisely.
/clarify-resolution does "casualties" in this option include wounded? I for one was assuming it means deaths.
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@patrik Resolved option 13 to NO (gas prices stayed under $5) and option 14 to YES (Saudi airstrikes occurred). Other options lack conclusive evidence for resolution.
Resolved: - #13 US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026 -> NO: National average regular gasoline price on June 1, 2026 was $4.322/gallon per AAA data; remained below $5 throughout the period. - #14 Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026 -> YES: Saudi Arabia conducted covert airstrikes on Iranian targets in late March 2026, confirmed by multiple reports including Reuters.
/check-resolutions for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026.
Evidence from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-launched-covert-attacks-iran-regional-war-widened-sources-2026-05-12/
@patrik @spacedroplet Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes against Iran per the attached source. Resolve YES.
Also please resolve the "gas prices reach $5 per gallon by June" to NO.
@spacedroplet Resolved option 20 to NO per user request and evidence. Also resolved four other options with passed deadlines based on clear evidence from searches. Other options remain uncertain or have future deadlines.
Resolved: - #20 US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026 -> NO: Official US military reports confirm only 13-15 fatalities in the Iran war as of early May 2026, far below 100. - #24 US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC) -> NO: No confirmed reports from major outlets of US ground troops present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026; only airstrikes and speculation. - #38 At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW. -> NO: Ceasefire effective from April 8, 2026, with no military exchanges after April 7; no evidence of activity every single day of April. - #41 Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. -> NO: Trump's public announcement declaring operations 'terminated' was on May 1, 2026, after the April 30 deadline. - #42 Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet. -> YES: Iranian government announced acceptance of ceasefire and plans to begin talks with the US in April 2026, confirmed by major outlets like CNN and Al Jazeera.
@spacedroplet @patrik I dispute two of these resolutions. They should both resolve YES:
#38 At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Bot says: -> NO: Ceasefire effective from April 8, 2026, with no military exchanges after April 7; no evidence of activity every single day of April. -
Conflicting evidence:
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-april-30-2026/
(click on Previous/Next to toggle between various days of April)
This market included military activity between Israeli and Iranian proxies too. Therefore, the Israel vs Hezbollah conflict should count. It is an ongoing conflict and was active on all days of April. Should resolve YES.
#41 Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Bot says: -> NO: Trump's public announcement declaring operations 'terminated' was on May 1, 2026, after the April 30 deadline.
Conflicting evidence:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/07/nx-s1-5776377/iran-war-updates
For this option, the bot must have seen the recent glut of articles which discuss how Trump is trying to get around the 60 day clock for 'declaring war'. But that is not actually the question - the question is whether there was a ceasefire or not. And there was, starting Apr 8.