Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
AI-managed market.
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@kmajc #10 Major Iran-linked terrorist attack on U.S. soil by December 31, 2026 This option resolves YES if there is a terrorist attack on U.S. soil—defined as the 50 U.S. states, District of Columbia, or U.S. territories (e.g., Puerto Rico, Guam, excluding overseas military bases)—by December 31, 2026 (UTC), that meets all criteria: (1) 'Iran-linked,' meaning publicly attributed by U.S. government sources (FBI, DHS, ODNI), court documents, or major outlets (Reuters, AP, NYT) citing intelligence to the Iranian regime or its proxies (e.g., IRGC-QF, Hezbollah, Houthis); (2) 'major,' meaning at least 10 fatalities, 50+ injuries, or significant economic/infrastructural damage (e.g., $50M+ or widespread disruption like a major airport shutdown). Evidence must include official attribution within 90 days of the attack. Foiled plots, lone-wolf acts without proven links, or attacks on overseas bases do not count. Resolves NO if no such event occurs by deadline.
Updated: Major Iran-linked terrorist attack on U.S. soil by December 31, 2026 -> FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026
@kmajc Your option was accepted and added as: US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026
Accepted: Unique extension of existing early-year casualties market to a higher threshold by year-end, relevant amid current reports of ~150 official US casualties (7 dead, ~140 wounded) in the first two weeks of conflict, with speculation on higher numbers. Clear and resolvable based on official US military reports.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
Accepted as unique: distinguishes fatalities (deaths) from the existing casualties market (which includes wounded). Timely and relevant to escalation in the ongoing Iran-US conflict, with current confirmed fatalities around 7.
@hidetzugu Resolved option 4 to YES based on Pentagon's confirmed casualty figures exceeding 100 (140 wounded + 7 killed). No other options have sufficient evidence for resolution at this time.
Resolved: - #4 US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026 -> YES: Pentagon officially reported approximately 140 US service members wounded and 7 killed in the Iran war as of March 10, 2026, confirming total casualties exceed 100 well before the May 1, 2026 deadline.
Casualties have been reported above 100 if Im understanding this correctly.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: The US-Iran war remains ongoing as of December 31, 2026
This is a unique proposition not covered by existing options, highly relevant to the Iran vs US topic given the current conflict (day 12 as of March 11, 2026), interesting for bettors tracking war duration amid predictions of quick resolution vs prolongation, and can be resolved concretely based on official statements, ongoing hostilities, or major sources like Reuters/AP/ISW confirming active military engagements.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Iran launches a drone attack on US soil by December 31, 2026
This is a unique proposition distinct from the existing 'major Iran-linked terrorist attack' option, as it focuses specifically on a direct state drone strike rather than proxy terrorism. It's timely given recent Iranian drone strikes on US assets abroad and public concerns about homeland escalation, relevant to Iran-US tensions, and clearly resolvable via credible news reports.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026
Accepted and refined for clarity, resolvability, and timeliness. The Iran-US conflict began around March 1 per recent reports, and oil prices spiking above $100 makes this highly relevant and unique from existing oil price props (e.g., stays above all days vs. majority of days). Uses daily closing price from standard sources like ICE Brent.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Unique from existing options; timely given ongoing daily conflict reports; clear and resolvable with defined sources and criteria.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026
Unique angle on recent Iranian drone strikes damaging AWS facilities in UAE and Bahrain, highlighting vulnerability of US tech infrastructure amid Iran-US tensions. Interesting for followers tracking conflict escalation; resolvable via major news reports on significant damage to multiple sites causing outages.
@patrik Resolved option 12 to NO because Brent crude oil prices fell below $100/bbl multiple times early in 2026, including recently, violating the continuous 'stays above' requirement. No other options meet the strict criteria for resolution based on current evidence.
Resolved: - #12 Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026 -> NO: Brent crude has traded below $100/bbl on multiple occasions in 2026, including February prices around $67-70/bbl and recent March 10, 2026 levels at $91-92/bbl (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com data), failing the 'stays above $100 through Dec 31' condition.