@Geofry and I go to the same middle school on the east coast. We want to go to Manifest next year. We are generally in the upper class and we fly out to do other events and the like.
I don't get in trouble a lot but my parents were considering taking away Manifold after the whole /realDonaldTrump/am-i-screwed-read-desc incident. But I am not planning on doing anything very chaotic or disruptive over the next year, and I think my parents and @Geofry's parents would otherwise be willing to go. It would probably be like 2 birthday presents or something. My dad is also interested in markets (professional stock trader) but has not joined Manifold.
Resolves YES if we go to Manifest 2026, and the event is officially sponsored by Manifold Markets or @SirSalty/@ian/@SG. Resolves N/A if Manifold, Manifest, or the Bay Area cease to exist.
If we go to a ManfestX or Minifest, resolves 50%.
Update 2025-12-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): @Geofry has deleted his account. The market will now resolve based solely on whether the creator attends Manifest, independent of whether Geofry attends.
Update 2026-03-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering resolving YES early upon purchasing tickets to Manifest, rather than waiting for the event itself.
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@traders I'm going to buy tickets tomorrow! Would anyone object to resolving this early if I hold the tickets, worst case we can always ask to unresolve it later?
@realDonaldTrump I feel like you've been moving goalposts here. First you and your friend both attending. Then just you. Then wanting to resolve early based on holding tickets. I read this as excitement, but the specific resolution criteria often matter a lot.
I recommend against changing your resolution criteria after people bet. Resolve the market when you walk in the door of Lighthaven.
@realDonaldTrump Priors. Dates aren't announced yet. You're in middle school. Inside view, rooting for you! Outside view, this is months away and plans often change, especially when young.
@JohnofCharleston Assuming it's that week, I would be 90% going because I'll already be in Bay area anyway for my cousin's wedding