How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

MANIFOLD

137

Ṁ2.1kṀ23k

2027

96%

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

82%

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

50%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

45%

Diplomatic deal (e.g. purchase)

27%

Trump will say that he took control over Greenland, but Denmark will say no. As usual, Fox News will give airtime only to Trump’s speech.

22%

Long term (30+ year) lease

U.S. is the de facto authority, even if they don't technically own the land

Russia will court Greenland to give an excuse to Trump to bring military forces

This option resolves YES if a nuclear bomb is dropped on Copenhagen by EOY. Resolves to 1/10,000,000,000 the purchase price if Greenland is purchased. Otherwise, resolves to a percent 1-10 as generated by @FairlyRandom

The odds on Kalshi get so low that Trump sees an opportunity. He orders the military into Greenland, conquers it, and wins a shitload of money.

Trump will offer another country the opportunity to occupy Greenland first, and then “liberate” it with NATO allies

Taken by force

Trump promises each Greenlander X$, so they have a vote to secede from Denmark and join the US. Vote is successful

Frederik X, King of Denmark is abducted by the US and abdicates the throne, ceding all rights and titles to Donald Trump

1.5%

Trying to invade with lots of troops but without a clear solution other than claiming to lead the government.

1.1%

U.S. takes Denmark, therefore also takes Greenland

Washington DC is physically severed from the Virgina border, so it's an island. Washington and Nuuk are simultaneously airlifted and switch places physically. Somehow this causes the US to be sovereign over Greenland and vice versa.

Creator judgement. CCR. Can be part of Greenland (not necessarily the whole thing.)

You can suggest answers that I can add to the market.

Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple options are true, the market will resolve to MULTI (multiple answers).

Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple answers are true, the market will resolve to MULTI (multiple answers can be selected).

Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed they will not resolve this market to N/A, regardless of any conflicts or issues with answer options.

Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY" will resolve based on its literal meaning. The previous interpretation (that this answer covered control between 10km and the whole of Greenland) applied only when this was a dependent multiple choice market where only one answer could resolve YES. Now that multiple answers can resolve YES, this answer means exactly what it says.

Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY" will resolve YES if 0 square kilometers of Greenland is controlled by the US (since 0 is less than 10).

Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All answers will be evaluated based on the status as of the end of 2026 (by January 1, 2027, when the market closes).

Update 2026-01-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The existing Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) does not count towards the total square kilometers of Greenlandic territory controlled by the US for purposes of evaluating the "<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY" answer option.

Market context

Greenland

Annexation

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

20% chance

Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?

6% chance

Will Trump interfere with Greenland?

48% chance

Will Canada send troops to Greenland?

44% chance

Will the U.S. actually pay Greenlanders to support the acquisition?

14% chance

Will the US invade Greenland less than 2 weeks after the Winter Olympics

3% chance

What date will Greenland be invaded by the United States?

2/18/30

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

Conditional on USA annexing Greenland, how much time will pass before it is reversed?

If U.S. buys Greenland by EOY, will it be purchased for $500B-$700B?

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Starting to think that piss is being taken with these answers.

Still, most coherent greenland market on this app.

@Sqeedee hey i'm the prez, i can do whatever the hell i want

@DominicDellaSera Cooked 🥀

bought Ṁ20 NO

@realDonaldTrump Does the existing base (Pituffik) count towards the total, if it still is controlled by the US at EOY?

@AllenLiu No

bought Ṁ10 NO

How is "long term lease" and "less than 10km2" both over 50%? a lease depending on how it is structured surely counts as control. I suppose what would stop them being overvalued is a very small lease of less than 10 km2.

@realDonaldTrump why is this at 15% 🥀

Do all the answers count for 2026? So everything resolves jan 1 2027? Or do they count for the duration of trump's second term?

@Sqeedee All of these "count" for 2026

@realDonaldTrump Does this resolve Yes or No if no part of Greenland is controlled by the US?
I mean 0 is <10sqkm.

@AxelAhlqvist That option would resolve YES if 0sqkm was controlled

bought Ṁ420 NO

these measures will not result in USA takes Greenland. Clear NI

@JayDH

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 99.0% order

@mods can you edit this so anyone can add answers?

@realDonaldTrump The switch is in the menu here.

@realDonaldTrump quroe is right but to clear out the mod queue i changed it

opened a Ṁ25 NO at 50% order

@realDonaldTrump Do the tarrifs have to apply to all countries or any single one would suffice? How explicit does the connection between tariffs and Greenland have to be? If the tariffs are imposed but the USA doesn't control Greenland by EOY, does this resolve No?

bought Ṁ20 NO

@realDonaldTrump the previous author agreed that this is about between 10km and a whole

@Waterfalls i was the previous author, also that was for dependent MC where only one could resolve yes, now it's just exactly what it says because multiple can result yes

@realDonaldTrump controlling 10 km does not make sense. you need an area, not a distance. perhaps our president ought not to be a middle schooler. (jkjk) please correct as it currently is unfeasible to invest in such a misformulated question🤣

@realDonaldTrump This is much better as an independent type market. I appreciate the restart.

However, the copied description is still stale from the old market and might not be the intention for this market. I don't think the rule about resolving to 50% is needed here.

bought Ṁ50 NO

How does "Imposition of tariffs on any country that opposes" resolve if he does it but doesn't actually end up taking Greenland as a result?

@A I want to try to take more of a trader consensus on this market.

I was planning on using my personal judgement to determine this. Did you have an alternative suggestion?

@realDonaldTrump It seems like, aside from...

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

... all the other answers should N/A if the title condition is not met. It sounds like the precondition is that Greenland is taken.

This is just my suggestion, and you can take this any direction you please.

Although, the 10km[squared?] market might be directly affected by how this is interpreted.

Perhaps you could add an asterisk (*) to all answers you want to exempt from being N/A'd if the precondition isn't met?

@realDonaldTrump Well it seems very likely that this exact situation will happen, so if you just tell us how you would handle it then we can bet on what will actually happen in the world instead of betting on what your personal judgement will be?