@traders Resolved N/A, thank you very much.

New independent market: https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/how-will-the-us-take-greenland-QLCSgzpnNy

I wish people hadn't trolled me so much about this, stop obsessing over an 8th grader controlling your fake internet points, I didn't want to have to do Manifold this weekend because I'm trying to spend time with my family on vacation. This market brought out the worst in Manifold's userbase... sad.

@realDonaldTrump you are an eighth grader? I thought you were the president! WTF?!

@AlexanderTheGreater assume this is a joke, did you actually think i was trump

@realDonaldTrump of course not! You are too articulate

@AlexanderTheGreater 😂

@realDonaldTrump Very Peter from Ender's Game vibes. Don't play any government run war games please. Or do, but use the forewarning to make gentler decisions.

@realDonaldTrump I always hate being reminded that you are an eighth grader. Feels wrong. Manifold should implement some sort of don't ask don't tell policy

@realDonaldTrump I don’t think many of us imagined that you were an eighth grader. Your name and PFP are gonna catch you some extra strays around here or anywhere. Especially when your behavior emulates him to boot.

@realDonaldTrump I apologize if your feelings were hurt, but it's a bad look to do the "stop obsessing over an 8th grader because of fake internet points" only after you've ceded to what people were asking to save face. You acted combative and obsessive over this market, and then switched up once it no longer benefited you. You can't demand to be taken seriously and keep doubling down and then fall back on "i'm only an 8th grader" once that becomes untenable. I'm not saying this to make you feel bad, but it's worth thinking about whether you want people to treat you as an adult or a child.

@gorillawarfare @VandelayIndustries @NivlacM Sorry if my defenses were inadequate, I was offline for the entirety of yesterday, and so that may have felt like a year on the internet but if I saw the same amount of pushback I did on the 17th on the 16th, I would have resolved it N/A earlier. BTW, it's pretty well-known that I'm an 8th grader (see /realDonaldTrump/am-i-screwed-read-desc) and I am curious to hear about Nivlac's thoughts on "don't ask don't tell"

@realDonaldTrump Glad that you resolved this N/A, but I really don't think this brought out the "worst" in the userbase, nor (in my opinion) was anyone "trolling".

Had you chosen to act civilly and dialogue with the traders, like the vast majority of market creators, there would have been an active but calm debate; possibly some controversy, but no real ill feelings, especially since basically everyone was advocating for N/A.

Instead you took an adversarial approach to market management. If you alienate your traders, this is exactly what you should expect to happen.

So... kudos to you for eventually resolving this N/A, but in the future, please communicate with your traders a little better. (And if you're away during the weekend, it just takes five seconds to say, "im away for a trip, be back in 2 days".)

@realDonaldTrump Respectfully, manifold is towards the periphery of my life and I generally don’t retain biographical details about specific users into my long-term memory.

That’s really beside the point, though. Ultimately, you are responsible for your behavior on here and if you run your markets like a defensive tyrant then you’re going to illicit a certain reaction . It goes both ways… if you engage with others openly and constructively, usually they will respond in kind.

I carry no ill will going forward and appreciate that this was ultimately resolved correctly.

I lost The Game :(

Why not simply NA this market and recreate as independent multiple choice? People do this all the time

@GazDownright I have learned the market creator is in the eighth grade, which explains much about how this has all transpired

@kmajc I've been aware, which is why I wanted to offer some helpful advice.

Funny how sometimes the markets with the worst rules get the best placement on the home page because the algorithm rewards them for getting so many comments

@Simon74fe isn't that just how the internet works?

@Simon74fe It's not just the comments, it's the trades as well. When there's 2 ways to interpret a market, traders from both sides will try to correct the price. This heavy trading will place the market up high in the algorithm.

An alternative market with clear criteria will be quickly priced correctly and disappear with single digit traders. Now if we say I'm "winning" as a creator if the market ranks high, has lots of traders, and collects lots of trader bonuses, there's a clear incentive to make markets with poor rules. I think my most successful market (most traders per number of days open) so far was my deliberate attempt to make traders feel "this is mispriced" in: /Primer/when-will-nazicommunists-lead-in-ge

put "[Read Description]" in the title so new traders are not misled

I bet before reading all the comments. Rookie mistake.

@mods I think this deserves a nuanced review.

Reading through the comments and change log, I think this is a summary of what happened here.

———

It seems like there was a notable change in an answer's criteria after it was available for trade for a few hours.

Additionally, people may or may not have also figured out that, in a dependent-type market, adding market answers that can simultaneously be true with other answers devalued the trades people made on market answers that felt near certain to them before. For example, if an answer felt near certain to somebody, and they bet YES on the probability for that answer from 90% to 99%, it's possible that that market could resolve to 50% after a conflicting answer was added, effectively kneecapping the trader who bet up to 99% just by adding a new answer.

This market seems like it defies the expectations of the average trader who stumbles upon this market. The market forces here are far from the norm. This market appears to be boosted in the algorithm because there is a descrepency in the expected value of the traders' trades themselves, not the state of the world they should represent.

Many traders, in my opinion, justifiably seem to think this should be N/A'd. This should not have been an dependent-type market.

It's worth noting that it's impossible to N/A some answers and not others on this market type. Either every answer N/A's, or none of them do.

I would also like to advocate for this change on this market. This would have mitigated or prevented this issue entirely.

@Quroe "This market appears to be boosted in the algorithm because there is a descrepency in the expected value of the traders' trades themselves, not the state of the world they should represent."

Very true. This is one of the clearest examples of that failure mode. I'll make a small trade to push this up further in the algorithm, to make this even more prominently visible.