Currently, Germany is governed by a center-left coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD. Historically, this has been known as GroKo (acronym for Große Koalition = Grand Coalition, and "word of the year" 2013) as those have been by far the biggest parties in Germany. In the last decades, support for those two major parties has been declining, with the SPD falling behind the Greens in 2018 and recently, after gaining 2nd place again for a while, falling behind the rightwing AfD in 2023. While the AfD is getting closer to CDU/CSU, Die Linke, a party left of the SPD which had been speculated to fall below the 5% of votes needed to enter the Bundestag, surprised with double-digit votes in the 2025 elections and is getting closer to the SPD.
When will the far right AfD ("Nazis") and the far left Die Linke ("Commies") combined lead in polling data over the current (formerly known as Grand Coalition) coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD?
Resolution criteria:
Resolves for the first date when the combined percentages for AfD + Die Linke are higher than the combined percentages for CDU/CSU + SPD in any column on https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Resolves to "After 2026", if this doesn't happen by end of 2026.
Backup resolution source like https://dawum.de/ will be used if the primary source ceases to provide data.
Historic trend can be seen on https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
Regarding the title: It's a Simpsons quote which I initially got wrong, now corrected:
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@VincentVega https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Forsa hast AfD+Linke at 38 before SPD+CDU/CSU at 37
@Jo2e2b Agreed, and I'm sorry for that.
I'm pretty confident the title "When will combined polling percentages for AfD and Die Linke surpass those of CDU/CSU and SPD?" would not have attracted nearly as many traders. I don't like those incentives, but they're there.
There's an even more... let's say "interesting" variant: I could have asked "When will far left and far right parties surpass the ruling coalition in German polls?" without defining which parties I consider far left/right. Traders' different assumptions would have led them to different predictions and probably even more engagement. Later I could go "Of course BSW counts as far left" or "Obviously, BSW isn't on the political left", both can be easily argued for. I wouldn't do this, but this time I opted for the clickbaity header. Sorry.
@Primer changing "When will Nazi-Communists lead in Germany" to "When will Nazis and Communists lead in Germany" would be less misleading.
@Wott You're right that I was wrong, but it's not "Nazis and Communists" either, but "Commie-Nazis": https://youtu.be/_kGtIJxAH3A?si=VEwgg6YvtuA47GBA
@AlexanderTheGreater Although one might argue that hating both the rich and immigrants equally makes the BSW the true Nazi-Communists, but turns out this just averages out to... "liking Russia".
If we added BSW, they'd already lead in some polls. We'd have to add either the FDP or the Greens to the other side, but I fear the former might get downgraded into Others soon and I'd hate to have to root for the latter.
So no, only AfD and Die Linke count.
@Primer As someone who has voted in all German elections for the FDP I'm extremely sad you are correct.
To make this confusing: I've only ever in national elections voted for the FDP or Kamala Harris 😂
@AlexanderTheGreater I dream of a world where instead of AfD, Linke and BSW we were discussing the meteoric rise of the Partei der Humanisten
@AlexanderTheGreater Also once voted for the Partei der Humanisten, probably some 8 years ago (otherwise FDP, Piraten and die PARTEI), but no more. They haven't gotten the memo about the dangers of AI yet.
@Chumchulum From an american point of view, Die Linke is probably closer to communism than AfD is to Nazis. But mainly I was being polemic with the wording to get some attention.
On 2025-09-09, opinion polling institute Forsa had
CDU/CSU + SPD = 25% + 14% = 39%
AfD + Die Linke = 26% + 12% = 38%
@AlanTennant Yeah, this was just a witty title. The AfD is the number 2 enemy of Die Linke (right after "rich people") and everyone is the enemy of the AfD. They are at opposite ends of the political spectrum.