Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to the company that is the first to be publicly traded.
Qualifying Events
The following events count as an IPO for the purpose of this market:
Traditional IPO
Direct Listing
SPAC Merger
Merging with another private company then IPOing together (e.g. xAI and SpaceX)
Disqualifying Events
Acquisition: If a company is acquired by an existing public company (e.g., if Microsoft fully acquires OpenAI or Tesla fully acquires xAI)
If two or more companies list on the exact same date, the market will resolve to 50% (or equal split) for the winning options.
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@ChurlishGambit The market stays open until one of them IPOs. If all the companies are acquired and/or cease operations then this market will resolve N/A.
XAI has been used by Musk to blackmail the Tesla board (in a way) into approving his pay package. It was the second “I have something else and can walk away” (along with SpaceX), and it was also the carrot (I can bring X.ai into the Tesla market cap…how else do I achieve these salary influencing targets now that BYD is outselling Tesla and Mercedes etc are outperforming while Weymo leads by so far in self driving?)
It would be weird to IPO it, unless Tesla / Musk lock up the majority of the stock