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@a_l_e_x, @mods So let me get this straight. You have 7 sources, of which 4 are Russian (Creamy caprice, LostArmour, Divgen, Suriyakmaps) and 3 are Western (Finnish, New Zealand, US, none Ukrainian). The Russian sources all report net gains larger than 400 km², the Western ones all less than 400 km² (except ISW, which hasn't yet, but will probably report the smallest gains among the three). So you are effectively deciding this market solely based on Russian sources? Russian?!? The Russians that have all the incentives in the world to exaggerate their advances? The Russians that have been recently caught lying about capturing a whole city?

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-lying-zelenskyy-visits-front-to-expose-false-claims-of-russian-gains/

What the actual f*ck. I don't care about the mana for this market because the rules were clear, I guess. But these four sources are spreading Russian propaganda. At least three of them (Creamy Caprice, LostArmour, and Suriyakmaps) are soliciting donations, two with the explicit goal of aiding Russia's genocidal war against Ukraine. I don't think this is something Manifold wants to be associated with. These markets, which are still open, need to be taken care of:

https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-ukraine-gain-more-territory-th
https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-russias-net-territorial-gain-i-slALLQplLs
https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-ukraine-lose-more-territory-in

@ChaosIsALadder I was under the impression that Suriyak lives in Spain, is not Russian and does not support either side. If you can prove otherwise, I will happily restructure future markets to ensure that those four sources aren't the majority.

As you conceded though, the rules were clear. If you dislike them, the beauty of Manifold is that you can create your own market on this question with your own rules and boycott mine. Unlike you, I will make no attempt to censor markets I disagree with. But the fact that you've only objected to the rules post-resolution suggests that this is just a sore loser rant.

You are correct that the Russian MoD lied about taking Kupyansk (although I must note the irony of citing the Atlantic Council while lamenting "propaganda"). That is one of many reasons why I do not, and would never, consider the Russian MoD a credible source. It is also not my intention to rely solely on pro-Russian sources to resolve these markets, although I am happy to give them equal weight to equally biased pro-Ukraine sources. I'm satisfied that they make a genuine attempt at accuracy and I have no objection to them on moral grounds.

This month is actually a bit unusual in having the pro-Russian sources all report higher estimates than the pro-Ukrainian sources. If you look through previous months, you will find a good deal of overlap. Creamy caprice in particular has provided some fairly low estimates in the past, far away from the Russian MoD's claims and sometimes even in line with what the Ukrainians are claiming.

Of the three other markets you want "taken care of", I should point out that your objections here don't even apply to two of them.

The first one can resolve in Ukraine's favour based on just two pro-Ukraine sources (ISW and Black Bird Group). By adding another six sources to the mix, I have given the market six extra chances to resolve YES, not that it needs them. If you're not happy with that, I don't know how to satisfy you.

The third market in that list will compare Ukraine's net territorial loss in 2026 with its net territorial loss in 2025. Each source will be compared only against itself. So unless you're arguing that the Russian sources have suddenly become biased in 2026 after being unbiased in 2025, I don't see the issue.

For what it's worth, Manifold can hardly claim to be against soliciting donations for war when it has raised thousands of dollars for a "charity" that sends supplies to Azov. Nevertheless, if Manifold staff ask me to use screenshots instead of links, I'm happy to comply.

In case it wasn't clear, I should also emphasise that none of the sources used in this market ever claimed that Russia controlled all of Kupyansk in 2025. You can check this yourself on their respective websites, since they have past versions of their maps available. So I don't know what Kupyansk has to do with anything. It's like asking me to disregard ISW because the US government lied about something once.

@a_l_e_x "I was under the impression that Suriyak lives in Spain, is not Russian and does not support either side [...] For what it's worth, Manifold can hardly claim to be against soliciting donations for war when it has raised thousands of dollars for a "charity" that sends supplies to Azov. [...] It's like asking me to disregard ISW because the US government lied about something once."

The problem is that you are linking Russian propaganda channels in your markets and thereby using Manifold to aid Russia’s genocidal war by amplifying and spreading their propaganda. Nothing in your lengthy answers acknowledges that. You cannot balance this by also adding Western sources, and even less by making them a minority, as in this market. You need to either remove the Russian sources (which I think is problematic, because you’d be changing the rules) or N/A the markets. And there seem to be much more than three now that I’m searching for them.

I’m guessing you’re raising the “Azov” objection as a distraction, but in case not, and you really believe it, would you bet big in a market on whether Azov is a Nazi organization and that the charity you mentioned really sent supplies to Azov? You’d be losing your money. If you’re at it, would you bet, according to your stated convictions, that raising money for a country defending itself against a genocidal war of aggression is pro-war? And would you also bet that it’s defensible to raise money for a country that is waging that genocidal war of aggression?

As for Suriyak, this is the only one out of the four sources that is not based in Russia. They were pro-Assad, and they talk about the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic,” which are not recognized by anyone except Syria (under Assad), North Korea and Russia. They’re hardly neutral and it's very likely they have a connection to Russia.

The other three, Creamy Caprice, LostArmour, and Divgen, they’re all based in Russia. If their views differ too much from the official propaganda or don't do what they're told, they can go to jail for a long, long time. So it doesn’t matter what their maps have shown or not shown in the past. They are ultimately subordinate to the genocidal war effort, which you are also aiding by linking and presenting them here on Manifold as legitimate sources.

@ChaosIsALadder

The problem is that you are linking Russian propaganda channels in your markets and thereby using Manifold to aid Russia’s genocidal war by amplifying and spreading their propaganda. Nothing in your lengthy answers acknowledges that.

As I said, I'm happy to screenshot their estimates rather than link.

And if I were concerned about amplifying propaganda, I would definitely have to exclude ISW for gems like this, but as it happens, I don't mind including it.

You need to either remove the Russian sources (which I think is problematic, because you’d be changing the rules) or N/A the markets.

I see no reason at all to do either of those things. Again, you are free to make your own markets with your own rules. Direct your complaints to the mods if you must. They may agree with you for all I know.

I’m guessing you’re raising the “Azov” objection as a distraction, but would you bet big in a market on whether Azov is a Nazi organization and that the charity you mentioned really sent supplies to Azov? You’d be losing your money.

Funny, I didn't say anything about Azov being Nazis. You went there by yourself.

Anyway, the "charity" I mentioned certainly claims to have spent $10,000 on thermal blankets and tourniquets for the 3rd Assault Brigade, which, according to Ukrainian media, was originally the Special Operations Forces of the Azov regiment. This brigade seems to be part of the 3rd Army Corps, which is led by Azov founder Andriy Biletsky. At least, that's what their website says. But correct me if I'm wrong.

So unless they lied about these donations and faked the photos, I'm fairly confident I would win this bet. And of course, you can read Biletsky's political views in his own words.

In all fairness, this charity does some good things too. But you're right, this risks becoming a distraction from the main issue.

As for Suriyak, this is the only one out of the four sources that is not based in Russia. They were pro-Assad, and they talk about the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic,” which are not recognized by anyone except Syria (under Assad), North Korea and Russia. They’re hardly neutral and it's very likely they have a connection to Russia.

This is a bit of a backtrack after you confidently claimed that Suriyak was Russian, and this "connection to Russia" thing seems to be speculation on your part. But your point about him using "LPR/DPR" is actually a fair one, even if it doesn't prove exactly what you were saying. As belligerent as you've been here, I will take that onboard.

The other three, Creamy Caprice, LostArmour, and Divgen, they’re all based in Russia. If their views differ too much from the official propaganda or don't do what they're told, they can go to jail for a long, long time.

This is clearly not true, or at least, not something to be concerned about at the moment.

As you mentioned earlier, Russia's official (and utterly false) line is that it captured the entirety of Kupyansk last year.

Rybar, which is based in Russia, openly contradicted that narrative multiple times and, IIRC, acknowledged some Ukrainian advances before pro-Ukraine sources did.

On 18 December they said:

On 24 December:

And on 25 December:

If what you're saying is true, Rybar would never have dared say those things in the first place. And if it did, it would have been shut down by now with all of its contributors shoved out of windows etc. And so would the three sources you take issue with, because again, none of them agreed with the Russian MoD on this.

Looking at the bigger picture, and perhaps one more relevant to this market, Creamy caprice's estimate of Russia's net territorial gain last year was significantly lower than the Russian MoD's (5,190km² vs >6,300km²):

Again, you're telling me that they would go to prison for this, but clearly not.

Of course these sources are still biased, which is why I don't use them in isolation. But the idea that Creamy caprice's geolocations are completely made up is not plausible, sorry.

Creamy caprice: 560.71 km²

LostArmour: 526 km²

Divgen: 470 km²

Suriyakmaps: 443.6 km²

Black Bird Group: 389 km²

AMK Mapping: 323.56 km²

ISW: TBA

With four sources over the 400km² threshold, it's mathematically impossible for the median to be under it. Market resolves YES.

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