Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
11
100Ṁ5742026
8%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).
Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.
Will Russia militarily seize Narva before the end of 2026?
See this question but for other years:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
27% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
10% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?
13% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
9% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
4% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
8% chance
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
3% chance
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
30% chance