Will Trump golf for at least 25% of his first 100 days?
121
1kแน€17k
May 1
67%
chance

Resolution source: https://trumpgolftrack.com/

Details:

  • Resolves YES if "Time Spent Golfing" is at least 25% after his first 100 days, and NO if "Time Spent Golfing" is <25%.

  • I plan to resolve following the linked webpage, and I make no promises about (a) the comprehensiveness/rigor of their sourcing & (b) the definitions they use.

  • However, if the site seems slow to update, I will wait a few days to resolve & will do my best to estimate what the true Day 100 percentage would have been based on their tally.

    • E.g. if it says "24%" on the 100th day but early the next morning they update the site and include that day as a golf day, it could still resolve YES, it's clear that the intended tally was 25%.

    • But if e.g. they "missed a day" because of their sourcing, that doesn't matter, it resolves based on their tally.

  • Other exception: if it's clear that the site is essentially abandoned (e.g. they're not making any sort of good faith effort to keep the tally updated), then this will N/A.

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
filled a แน€50 NO at 60% order

Their number has been sitting right around 25%. Seems like a pretty good bet above 60%, this market has a lot of confidence that he will play more way golf than usual

"Price of eggs" has now dropped below the initial price. I wonder how long they'll keep displaying it

@Shai Thought the same thing, only a matter of time before they take it off and put some other metric that happens to be going down at that time.

@Riley12 "price of bottle of French wine"

@MartinRandall @Riley12 They removed both price trackers ๐Ÿ˜‚

@Shai they should add the price of US stocks.

opened a แน€2,000 YES at 50% order

at the time of market creation (just under halfway through his first 100 days), the tracker is at 26%, which is enough to resolve YES.

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules