Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
35
210Ṁ52402029
56%
chance
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Resolves No if any of the following actions occur:
Keir Starmer fails to form a parliamentary majority in the 2024 election as seen on Wikipedia (2019 equivalent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)
Keir Starmer resigns or is deposed by a vote of no confidence before the next General Election is scheduled to be held (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a general election is held before 2024 and Keir Starmer maintains his parliamentary majority, the question will resolve to a yes.
If he loses his parliamentary majority in an early election, the question will resolve to a no.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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