Please note that I will add more people once they get confirmed. If you have any concerns or think that I missed someone, please tell me in the comments.
Background Donald Trump has announced potential cabinet members for his potential 2025 administration. These nominees represent a mix of former officials, political allies, and new faces. Several nominees have controversial backgrounds or limited experience in their designated roles, which could affect their longevity in the cabinet.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the first person from the provided list who is either:
Formally removed from their position
Resigns from their position
Has their nomination withdrawn before confirmation
For resolution purposes:
Acting secretaries who are later confirmed do not count as a removal
Temporary absences (e.g., medical leave) do not count as removal
If multiple individuals leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the person whose departure was officially announced first
Considerations
Several nominees may face challenging Senate confirmation processes, particularly:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. due to his controversial vaccine stance
Pam Bondi due to her involvement in 2020 election challenges
Pete Hegseth due to limited defense policy experience
Historical precedent shows that cabinet turnover in the Trump administration was higher than average, with multiple departures occurring through various means (firing, resignation, withdrawal)
Some nominees hold positions that typically face more scrutiny and pressure (e.g., Attorney General, Defense Secretary, Homeland Security)
Senate confirmation could be particularly challenging if Republicans hold a narrow majority or if Democrats control the Senate
Update 2025-12-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Vice President (JD Vance) will not be added to the list of cabinet members who can resolve this market, as the president cannot fire the vice president.
Update 2025-12-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Impeachment will count as removal for the purposes of resolving this market.
JD Vance (Vice President) will not be added to the list of cabinet members who can resolve this market, as the president cannot fire the vice president.
Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor) has been added to the list of cabinet members who can resolve this market.
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@bens I myself have just been treating those markets as “who on this list will leave first” because 🤷♂️ but I don’t see a reason to copy their criteria on Manifold
@bens I am pretty sure he is considered cabinet level officials at least from Claude’s and most sources. Some other people on this list could even be considered borderline cabinet level but they are here, so I don’t see how Miran shouldn’t quality.
@Mochi ChatGPT says he’s not. Wikipedia doesn’t list his as a cabinet level official. White House doesn’t list him as in the cabinet
@Mochi How did you get Claude to say he is? I just asked Claude and it said no he’s not
@Jack1 I just asked a simple question: Is Stephen Miran considered as trump’s cabinet member. And CEA chairs are often considered cabinet-level. Also if we are going by official White House then Suzie wiles is also not listed.
@bens I am all for manifold having its own interpretation, but it would also be kinda weird to go against PM and Kalshi on what reads as the exact same question. i mean if we operate under what names exist then why is “others” even there and other names can be added, there is an identical market to this one that doesn’t have “others” in its list of options, then sure it makes sense those are all the “available” names.
@Jack1 Gemini also thinks CEA is cabinet level officials, also in your own question of how many cabinets will leave, you mentioned 25 members+vp which aligns with Wikipedia description and kalshi/pm # of candidates. I am not sure why he is not on the Wikipedia list and there’s only 22 listed on there, maybe some cabinet-level officials are not listed there.
Head of the Council of Economic Advisers has been elevated to the cabinet in the past but was removed as a cabinet level position in 2019 and has not been readded since. This is especially funny considering the fact that Trump specifically announced his cabinet at the start of the term and never included the role. No clue how people missed this one.
@Marnix most sources still consider CEA as cabinet level, it’s possible that it’s not in the cabinet but its cabinet level
@Mochi It's just flatly not, is the thing. It's not cabinet-level. The president says when he's elevating something to cabinet level, and he never said CEA was one of them. Any source saying that might not have been updated since before Trump 1.
@Marnix I know, this whole thing is kind of wild to me. I don't understand how or why Kalshi and Polymarket added him? I'd assumed it was because he was at the time of market creation under speculation of first becoming a cabinet member and subsequently leaving the role. Seems like a big snafu but I don't hear anyone raising the alarm about it.
@bens dude why would you just assume my sources are chatbots and I dont try look elsewhere. I get how trump may not officially announce him as cabinet but some sources still consider it cabinet level. Maybe they are outdated as Marnix suggseted
@Mochi https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet/
bruh, how about the PRIMARY SOURCE ITSELF
@bens dude can you chill out? There’s been times where the primary source is outdated, inaccurate or missed something.
@Jack1 why do you think Stephen Miran doesn’t count? It counted for Polymarket as trumps cabinet member https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-first-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-828/will-stephen-miran-be-the-first-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-before-2027-187
Kalshi considers Miran to be part of trumps cabinet too. Pretty sure he counts https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabout/next-cabinet-memeber-out/KXCABOUT-29?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventpage
@Mochi this market says "This market will resolve to the first person from the provided list", so if we're going off the resolution criteria instead of the title I don't think he counts. There's gold arguments both ways though.
@PlasmaPower I mean you can ask the creator to add this person like many have done already, others is there for such situations.
@Mochi yes, but presumably you cannot ask the creator to ask someone after they're already gone :p I get the point though
@PlasmaPower then the question resolves to others, I think it’s pretty simple as the person who left was part of “others”. Kinda the purpose for “others” to exist in the first place