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MANIFOLD
When, where or how will Trump die?
315
αΉ€7.4kαΉ€60k
2036
99%
On Earth
96%
Before 2045
92%
Before WW3
92%
In the US
91%
Before we have an universal flu vaccine
87%
Before we get ASI
85%
In the Eastern time zone
83%
Natural causes
77%
In a hospital
72%
in bed
72%
After his presidency
70%
Before we get AGI
70%
When BTC is below $100.000
68%
Closer to Venus than to Mars
67%
When BTC is above $80.000
66%
Surrounded by his friends and loved ones
65%
At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)
51%
In his sleep
48%
In Florida
41%
After my Manifold account has been inactive for 12+ months

Background Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old. He is currently the oldest major party nominee for president in U.S. history. According to CDC data, the average life expectancy for a 77-year-old American male is approximately 9.4 additional years.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the year of Donald Trump's death as reported by multiple reputable news sources. If Trump dies during a particular year listed in the options, that option will resolve to YES and all others to NO.

The market will resolve N/A if:

  • Trump's death cannot be verified by multiple reputable sources

  • The exact date of death cannot be determined

  • The death occurs under disputed circumstances where the date is unclear

Considerations

  • Trump has access to high-quality medical care and resources which may extend life expectancy beyond population averages

  • His father, Fred Trump, lived to be 93 years old, suggesting possible genetic factors for longevity

  • As a former president, he receives lifetime medical care from military physicians

  • Stress factors from legal proceedings and potential political activities could impact health outcomes

  • Medical privacy laws may affect the timing and details of death announcements

Note: This market deals with the death of a public figure. Traders should approach the topic with appropriate sensitivity and respect.

  • Update 2026-01-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For location-based resolution (e.g., "outside" vs "inside"), the market will only resolve if the circumstances are clear. Examples:

    • Clear case: Death from a bombing outside would resolve as "outside"

    • Unclear case: A heart attack where the person is transported to a hospital and declared dead inside would be considered unclear and may resolve N/A

  • Update 2026-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "in front of a camera" option:

    • A recording camera counts (including CCTV)

    • Holding a cell phone that is off does not count

    • Verification does not require the footage to be publicly released

  • Update 2026-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the "with a bullet inside his body" option: resolves YES if a bullet is found inside his body after autopsy, whether from being shot or from swallowing.

Market context
Politics
US Politics
Trump
Trump's Second Term
Republican Party
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@TheWabiSabi Mind N/A ing my submission, i realized it could be a little dangerous.

@egga22 and there I was trying to figure out how to keep you alive for as long as possible

@egga22 are you sure you wanna be incentivising a bunch of internet weirdos to do inside trading on how long you'll live?

@hidetzugu How about it doesn't count if it was a murder,

@egga22@egga22 a better question is how will you resolve it from the afterlife

@hidetzugu thats true... How about mods resolve it If im inactive for a year after emailing me?

@egga22 good to know you've got your priorities straight

@egga22 Say, for the sake of argument, somebody has done a spectacularly bad job on trading your market here, and has lost a lot of mana on buying high and selling low.

They are, hypothetically, really in the hole, and they don't hold a lot of YES or NO shares either way at this point.

If the market resolves N/A, all of their bad trades are undone. They will get all of their mana back if it resolves N/A.

Are you comfortable with a really, really bad trader effectively having a mana bounty on specifically murdering you?

@Quroe Well good thing it's not real money at least

@egga22 It sounds like we've done our due diligence to ensure you know what you've gotten yourself into!

@Quroe maybe i'll delete it, just to be safe.

@egga22 How do I delete it?

@egga22 Request @TheWabiSabi N/A it.

Anybody in favor of adding 'How' in the question? @traders

@TheWabiSabi Yes

---Clarification Compendium---

@Quroe

Where's the HOW market?

@NivlacM I could add the how in those market, or too messy?

@NivlacM added

@TheWabiSabi Can you clarify "inside"?

@Quroe bullet is found inside his body after autopsy (from being shot or swallowing)

sold αΉ€0 YES

Intended to have the same criteria as: https://manifold.markets/SpeaksForTrees/will-trump-die-in-bed

Will Trump die in bed?
74% chance. YES if Donald J. Trump dies while physically atop any bed. NO if he dies anywhere else Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hospital beds count as beds for the purposes of this market. Update 2026-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The official legal time and location of death will generally be used to determine resolution. If there is ambiguity between biological death and declared time of death, the creator may consult trader/moderator opinions. Resolution to a partial % (based on time spent in bed during the death process) or N/A is possible if the location of death is entirely unclear.

@Marnix bold of you to assume you are capable of evaluating who his friends and loved ones are πŸ˜‰

@Marnix Can we get a clarification on how/if this is unique from "In front of a camera"?

@Quroe On TV implies it happens live on television (during scheduled programming). In front of a camera would include phone cameras, movie cameras, etc

@Marnix What if it's not live? For example, during a prerecorded interview.

@Quroe I'd still count that if it's for something that's to air on TV

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