When or where will Trump die?
111
3.8kṀ22k
2036
98%
In the US
95%
Before we get ASI
79%
In Florida
78%
At or greater than 20m above sea level (using https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-nb18/United-States/ to verify if necessary)
77%
Before 2030
77%
Before we get AGI
62%
In a hospital
61%
After his presidency
51%
Surrounded by his friends and loved ones
31%
Mar-a-Lago
21%
While in office
19%
Outside (not in a vehicle or building)
17%
On a Friday
16%
On a Monday
16%
On a Tuesday
15%
On a Wednesday
15%
On a Thursday
15%
On a Saturday
15%
During WW3
15%
On an airplane

Background Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946, making him 77 years old. He is currently the oldest major party nominee for president in U.S. history. According to CDC data, the average life expectancy for a 77-year-old American male is approximately 9.4 additional years.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the year of Donald Trump's death as reported by multiple reputable news sources. If Trump dies during a particular year listed in the options, that option will resolve to YES and all others to NO.

The market will resolve N/A if:

  • Trump's death cannot be verified by multiple reputable sources

  • The exact date of death cannot be determined

  • The death occurs under disputed circumstances where the date is unclear

Considerations

  • Trump has access to high-quality medical care and resources which may extend life expectancy beyond population averages

  • His father, Fred Trump, lived to be 93 years old, suggesting possible genetic factors for longevity

  • As a former president, he receives lifetime medical care from military physicians

  • Stress factors from legal proceedings and potential political activities could impact health outcomes

  • Medical privacy laws may affect the timing and details of death announcements

Note: This market deals with the death of a public figure. Traders should approach the topic with appropriate sensitivity and respect.

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We can assume there is some risk for N/A here if this gets too difficult to discover.

If he dies while on a flight, use best judgement.

@Quroe yes

@Marnix Is loved ones people that Trump loves or people that love Trump?

@Qoiuoiuoiu it'd be HIS loved ones, so the people he loves

bought Ṁ5 NO

@Marnix Is it possible for a man to surround himself?

@dsj how should I rewrite this?

bought Ṁ1 YES

Related:

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Marnix does Trump have friends and loved ones?

bought Ṁ50 NO

You can make it as specific as you want it by adding other options

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