MANIFOLD
On which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive?
31
Ṁ135Ṁ4.2k
Apr 17
99%
2026-04-14 (14-Apr-2026)
97%
2026-06-14 (14-Jun-2026)
96%
2026-08-13 (13-Aug-2026)
95%
2026-10-13 (13-Oct-2026)
94%
2026-12-13 (13-Dec-2026)
93%
2026-12-31 (31-Dec-2026)

Each option will resolve a couple of days after the given date to be on the safe side.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Trump
Trump's Second Term
Death markets
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

@4fa Playing the SSA actuarial tables exactly?

@MarySmith Approximately… 😉

@4fa how big of a limit order are you interested going in on @ 94% for making it through the year?

bought Ṁ3 YES

@MarySmith Not much, to be honest. I think it's closer to 97% than to 94%, but other traders in this market have bet it lower, maybe they'd be interested in a deal with you.

@4fa hard to say - Big Don is taking big actions that have consequences bigly...

reposted

Currently some arbitrage opportunity with the 2025 market: https://manifold.markets/4fa/on-which-days-will-donald-trump-be

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy