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MANIFOLD
Will Trump die in bed?
12
Ṁ100Ṁ217
2027
73%
chance

YES if Donald J. Trump dies while physically atop any bed. NO if he dies anywhere else

  • Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hospital beds count as beds for the purposes of this market.

  • Update 2026-04-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The official legal time and location of death will generally be used to determine resolution. If there is ambiguity between biological death and declared time of death, the creator may consult trader/moderator opinions. Resolution to a partial % (based on time spent in bed during the death process) or N/A is possible if the location of death is entirely unclear.

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There have been markets in the past where there was considerable debate over how to determine the moment someone died, you should have an opinionated answer already prepared before anything like that happens.

@Eliza this is a very good point, thank you for bringing that up.

In most cases it shouldn't be too controversial to use the legal time (and location) of death officially reported, however if there appears to be a period of time between actual physical death (cessation of biological function) and declared time of death I will have to consult trader and moderator opinions and look into the outcomes of those past debates you mention.

I am not opposed to resolving to a % based on time of death process spend in bed or N/A if it's entirely unclear.

@SpeaksForTrees I think death comes when the soul exits the body so, in the case we are discussing, it already happened! (?!?)

@hidetzugu i mean really none of us are qualified to make resolutions about the existence and behavior of souls

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 70% order

Hospital beds count?

@hidetzugu yes certainly