If X is true, will Democrats get a majority in the Senate in 2026?
16
Ṁ225Ṁ501Dec 31
40%
Democrats get a majority in the House in 2026
38%
Donald Trump is not president for the midterms
34%
Donald Trump is president for the midterms
34%
AOC stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
33%
Supreme court allows Trump tariffs
31%
There is a US government shutdown in 2025
28%
Newsom stably has >20% nomination chance per prediction markets
26%
The GOP holds a midterm convention
Resolved
N/AThere is no US government shutdown in 2025
Resolves YES for every option that happens if Democrats win a Senate majority in 2026, NO for every option that happens if they don't, and N/A for every option that doesn't happen.
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