Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
Resignation
Resolves NO if he deploys such forces and completes his term (or leaves due to e.g. death or incapacitation)
Resolves N/A if no unauthorized military deployment to Greenland occurs.
Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via military coup or other non-constitutional means would resolve NO. The market specifically tracks removal through constitutional accountability (impeachment/conviction) or political pressure (resignation) only.
Update 2026-01-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump uses military force against Greenland and is later impeached/removed or resigns over a seemingly separate issue, the market will still resolve YES. The creator will not attempt to determine whether the Greenland action played any role in shifting political will toward removal, even if another issue appears to dominate the impeachment/resignation.
Update 2026-01-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via the 25th Amendment would resolve NO. The market only counts removal through impeachment/conviction or resignation.
1,000People are also trading
Someone should make a 2x2 multiple choice market because I am not betting on long term conditional market
What if Trump uses military force against Greenland, the whole thing blows over, and then a few years later, he's impeached and removed from office over an entirely separate issue?
@ShankarSivarajan That would still count because it might be too hard to establish whether Greenland played no role in shifting political will, even if another issue dominates
@Qoiuoiuoiu
I assume military force aimed at establishing territorial control would almost certainly require presidential authorization. But if it genuinely couldn't be connected to Trump, it wouldn't count.
@moobunny Would resolve NO. The market is about him leaving due to constitutional accountability or political pressure
@Simon74fe Would the 25th amendment count as "constitutional accountability" then?
@nonnihil As written, the rules only cover impeachment/conviction or resignation, so 25th Amendment would also be NO. The 25th was designed for incapacitation, not for accountability. Also seems quite unlikely to be triggered by Greenland