If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? For the purpose of this market, an invasion is defined as any military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.
This market resolves N/A if Trump does not win the 2024 election or if China invades Taiwan before the 2024 election.
Biden market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-biden-wins-will-china-invade-tai
Update 2025-12-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade alone would not count as an invasion for the purposes of this market. An invasion requires a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.
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the recent purge of China's top general and his supporters likely means their operational readiness has been set back in the short term
@Simon74fe this would be a better market if the title made it clear it's only the first half of Trump's term.
I don't mean to be too critical, but I routinely bet on this market as if it were for the whole term. The "routine" part is obviously on me, but presumably other people are making the same mistake the first time repeatedly.
@Simon74fe I guess not for the purpose of this market but just to be sure, do any of the Taiwanese islands just off the coast of mainland China count as ‘any portion of Taiwan’?
