![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2Fjim%252Fbba1f518745d.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will Donald Trump win 2024? x Will China Invade Taiwan before 2030?
Plus
42
Ṁ63022030
41%
trump wins & china invades taiwan
52%
trump wins & china doesn't invade taiwan
3%
trump loses & china invades taiwan
3%
trump loses & china doesn't invade taiwan
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 NO
@Ansel I think the opposite, China would be less likely to invade Taiwan if the US President is a Very Stable Genius. Having an unpredictable narcissist as President certainly is not without its downsides, but I do think that it does deter some bad actors.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=amlt
The "china invades taiwan" options should probably sum to something closer to 27%. Anyway very small arb opportunity if anyone feels like it.
Related questions
Related questions
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
1% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
36% chance
Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
33% chance
If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024-12-31, will it invade Taiwan by 2030-12-31?
32% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
29% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
34% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
41% chance
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?
2% chance
If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?
21% chance
Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
28% chance