If Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026? | Manifold

If Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?

13

Ṁ240Ṁ1.2k

2027

15%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Market context

2024 US Presidential Election

China Taiwan potential conflict

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Would a naval blockade be considered an attack for this market, or does it have to be shots fired?

bought Ṁ30 NO

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