If China invades Taiwan, will Manifold predict it?
21
Ṁ200Ṁ4972035
73%
chance
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We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of less than 1 year. If 2 days before invasion that market says >30% then this question resolves YES.
If China does not invade Taiwan by end of 2035 this resolves N/A.
If Manifold ceases to function, resolution depends on Polymarket. If that ceases to function, it depends on the most traded public market on any platform. (Of course in that case this question won't resolve, but bet with your honor!)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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