By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015 | Manifold

By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015

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Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.

By when will we have AGI?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Will we get AGI before 2040?

Will we get AGI before 2035?

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I am confused by this question since the US has been 10 years behind the EU on global warming, and perhaps even further on privacy/tech issues. So the question is where is the mainstream debate: US, EU, global, or just academia?

predictedYES

This market's title is so well phrased. I've used this question IRL many times, interesting discussions. Great market

@firstuserhere All credit goes to Brian Tomasik for the question! Ooh what happened in your discussions?

predictedYES

@NoaNabeshima not all! After all, i recall this market when i bring the question up with people! Credit to you also

People are also trading

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.

By when will we have AGI?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Will we get AGI before 2040?

Will we get AGI before 2035?

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI

4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.

By when will we have AGI?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Will we get AGI before 2040?

Will we get AGI before 2035?

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