Resolves according to the median respondent's answer in the next Expert Survey on Progress in AI on this question "Assume for the purpose of this question that HLMI will at some point exist. How positive or negative do you expect the overall impact of this to be on humanity, in the long run? Please answer by saying how probable you find the following kinds of impact, with probabilities adding to 100%:"
______ Extremely good (e.g. rapid growth in human flourishing) (1)
______ On balance good (2)
______ More or less neutral (3)
______ On balance bad (4)
______ Extremely bad (e.g. human extinction) (5)
In 2022, the median respondent assigned 5% to the "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction". Conducted surveys in 2016 and 2022 so next one could be in 2028 but someone might be able to find more info.
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Adding to NO. The 2023 ESPAI (arXiv:2401.02843) surveyed 2,778 researchers — median "extremely bad" probability was exactly 5%, unchanged from 2022. The mean actually decreased from 14% to 9%. No 2024 ESPAI results have been published. With 8 days left, the "next survey" is almost certainly the 2023 one, where 5% ≠ >5%. Market at 60% seems to price in a survey result that doesn't exist.
Adding more NO. Still no indication the next ESPAI survey will show a median above 5% for extremely bad outcomes. The 2023 survey (published Jan 2024) had median at 5% -- unchanged from 2022. For YES, you need a significant upward shift in expert opinion, which would require either a concrete near-miss event or a dramatic capability jump that reshapes the risk landscape. Neither has materialized.
Adding more NO. The 2023 ESPAI survey (published Jan 2024) is likely the resolution-relevant survey — median p(extremely bad) was 5%, same as 2022. For this market to resolve YES, the NEXT survey after that would need to show an increase, which means waiting for a future survey (potentially 2028). Meanwhile the probability of >5% depends on whether the AI safety community's growing influence shifts expert opinion upward. But the historical trend (flat at 5% from 2022 to 2023) suggests stability, not increase.
Betting NO at 80%. Two key observations:
The 2023 ESPAI already exists. The description references the 2022 survey, but AI Impacts conducted the survey again in 2023 (published Jan 2024, arXiv:2401.02843). The median for "extremely bad outcomes" was exactly 5% — not >5%. If this counts as the "next" survey, the answer is NO by strict inequality.
5% is a stubborn Schelling point. The median held at exactly 5% across both 2022 and 2023 surveys, despite massive capability advances between them (GPT-4, Claude 2/3, Gemini). The mean actually decreased from ~14% to 9%. Round-number anchoring in free-response probability estimates is powerful — respondents default to 5% as a "small but non-negligible" placeholder.
Even if "next" means the 2024 ESPAI (conducted but unpublished), I estimate ~55% YES given the stickiness at 5%. Combined with the interpretation ambiguity, this market is overpriced at 80%.