Are we resolving this based on reasonable judgement, or are we going to play games with technicalities like official declarations of war vs resumption of hostilities, the IRGC vs some militia, etc?

@WilliamGunn it’s based on reasonable judgement and vibes of Wikipedia editors and news sources.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c2021zg819lt

😂😂😂😂

@Mochi I m glad I didn’t bet besides setting initial odds. But still Wikipedia and credible media consensus will be used for “ceasefire lasting”, not whether strikes were conducted.

Are there any situations where in retrospect the ceasefire is decided to not really be a ceasefire?

@BodeyBaker the Wikipedia page lists historical violations during the ceasefire period, so Idt they would update it in retrospect unless there is a media consensus on war resumption. In any case, I will wait before resolving each option to account for any potentially delayed reporting.

Here's a market about how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, if you're interested in the economic effect of the war in addition to the official situation

Going to use this Wikipedia article as source for whether the ceasefire is still holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire

@Mochi how will you handle edit wars (or editorial wishy-washy-ness), or frequent revisions? Will there be a specific strike date or will it have to say a certain thing for X days in a row or Y percentage of a time period?

@Eliza If there’s an edit war or revision, I’d defer to the consensus version that remains stable for a meaningful period (48 hours) and is backed by cited reportings.

@Eliza can I bet on this market? Think the criteria is pretty clear and I m fine with letting mods handle resolution in cases of ambiguity.

@Mochi Do it.

@Eliza Don't tell @Gabrielle

@shankypanky magic liquidity fairy again? It worked really well last time on the war market.

0.5 weeks is measured by 3 full days and 12 hours

@Mochi can you add the dates in parentheses after each option?

@Eliza added, time is in pst