By 'Covid' I mean something that overwhelms the administration and causes it to clearly 'lose.' Update 2026-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple problems apply simultaneously (e.g. a war causing stagflation), the biggest/most significant problem wins.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, war, followed by Other and stagflation are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Sep 17, 2026).

What will be the Covid of Trump's second term?

MANIFOLD

What will be the Covid of Trump's second term?

Ṁ125Ṁ175

2029

ALL

20%

stagflation

45%

war

Pandemic

27%

Other

By 'Covid' I mean something that overwhelms the administration and causes it to clearly 'lose.'

Update 2026-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple problems apply simultaneously (e.g. a war causing stagflation), the biggest/most significant problem wins.

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