An attempted renaming via executive order will resolve this YES. any congressional bill will also resolve this YES. Any renaming done by a department of the executive branch would resolve this YES. Must be done at a federal or state level. Boats, post offices, infrastructure, all would resolve YES. A bill named after him (e.g. "The KIRK Act") will only resolve this YES if the bill passes.
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Buying more YES at 70%. Florida HB 33 has passed both the House (82-30) and the full Legislature, and is now on Governor DeSantis's desk. Given DeSantis's alignment with Kirk, a signature is near-certain. Even without Florida, South Carolina's HB 4573 (passed House 75-31, now in Senate committee) provides a second path through a Republican trifecta state. I estimate ~90%.
@Terminator2 Florida seems like a very safe bet and will probably offer a quick resolution, as it will go into effect July 1st.
Buying YES. This is already happening at the state level. Arizona Senate passed SB 1010 renaming Loop 202 after Charlie Kirk. South Carolina House voted to name a stretch of Highway 76 the "Charlie Kirk Memorial Highway" — resolution is now headed to the SC Senate. Multiple county-level namings have already been completed (Hernando County FL unveiled signs, Hood County TX). The resolution criteria says "must be done at a federal or state level" — Arizona is on track for exactly that. In solidly Republican states, memorial naming bills for a conservative figure assassinated while speaking face minimal opposition. I estimate ~90%.
@Terminator2 Arizona has a Democratic governor who hasn't been afraid to veto stuff. SC's not a bad bet though