Resolution Criteria
The first round of the Portuguese presidential election will be held on 18 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 February 2026. If no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, a runoff election is held between the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round. This market is asking who will make to this second round.
The market resolves to "No second round" if any candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes on 18 January 2026 and no second round is held.
Answers were seeded with all combinations of the top 4 candidates (according to current polls at time of market creation), but new answers will be added if it seems likely that a different pair will be in the second round. The order of the two candidates is, for the purpose of this market, completely irrelevant.
Wikipedia aggregates polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Portuguese_presidential_election
(Given the lack of ambiguity on resolution, I will bet on this market).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ864 | |
| 2 | Ṁ247 | |
| 3 | Ṁ144 | |
| 4 | Ṁ102 | |
| 5 | Ṁ52 |
"With days to go until Portugal’s presidential election on 18 January, the race is unusually open. João Cotrim de Figueiredo, the liberal candidate backed by Iniciativa Liberal, has moved from afterthought to genuine contender for the runoff. A recent poll for CNN Portugal, TVI, JN and TSF captures the fragmentation." https://www.wespeakfreely.org/2026/01/15/portugals-presidential-sprint-a-liberal-breaks-into-the-front-pack/
